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5.2​ Balance of payments, current account
Ukraine’s external goods trade deficit amounted to $412mn in November as compared to $483mn in October​, the State Statistics Service said in its preliminary report published on January 14. The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit amounted to $417mn (vs. a $323mn deficit in October) amid 2.4% m/m growth in adjusted exports and a 4.3% m/m increase in adjusted imports.
Goods exports advanced 9.2% y/y in November to $4.7bn (vs. 1.5% y/y growth in October). The growth was mostly driven by increasing exports of mineral products (55.7% y/y), fats and oils (40.7% y/y), machinery (5.9% y/y) and grains (3.4% y/y). At the same time, exports of ferrous metals dropped 4.0% y/y.
Goods imports fell 2.1% y/y to $5.1bn in November (vs. a 14.7% y/y decline in October). In particular, imports of energy products plummeted 36.6% y/y and machinery dropped 8.6% y/y. At the same time, imports of chemicals surged 27.9% y/y, foods improved 16.5% y/y, and vehicles advanced 3.8% y/y.
In 11M20, the goods trade deficit amounted to $3.9bn (vs. $9.4bn in 11M19). Goods exports slid 3.5% y/y, while goods imports dropped 12.9% y/y.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note: Goods exports intensified significantly in November, as all the major items of Ukraine’s goods exports – except ferrous metals – advanced. Ukrainian exporters have benefited a lot from very high external demand for iron ore, as well as oils and fats.
At the same time, the decline of goods imports slowed down significantly in November. Food imports are growing fast, driven by high consumer demand. In addition, Ukraine’s agricultural producers intensified the purchase of imported fertilizers, while the ongoing pandemic is causing high demand for imported pharmaceuticals.
The current trends in Ukraine’s external trade in goods is likely to continue in the nearest months. The trend will be halted in March amid a low comparative base of 2020.
5.2.1 ​Import/export dynamics
China’s imports of Ukrainian grain are soaring during this marketing year, ​the Ukrainian Grain Association reports, citing figures released Thursday at an Agro meeting at Ukraine’s Embassy in Beijing. In the first seven months of the grain marketing year, China has imported 6.9mn tons from Ukraine – more than the 6.3mn tons imported during the 2019/2020 marketing year. During the 2020 calendar year, China was the largest importer of Ukrainian grain, buying 20% of Ukraine’s total exports of $9.4bn, said Serhiy Ivashchenko, acting executive director of the Ukrainian Grain Association.
Ukraine’s food exports to the EU slipped by 11% last year, to €6.5bn​, the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club reports on Facebook. Ukraine was tied with China
35​ UKRAINE Country Report​ February 2021 ​ ​www.intellinews.com