Page 9 - AfrElec Week 14 2022

AfrElec GAS GENERATION AfrElec

Gas a waste of money

for South Africa

SOUTH AFRICA ANY investment in gas-fired generation by availability and cost of alternative technologies
South Africa would prove to be a waste of money such as green hydrogen, it is likely that there will
as cheaper renewables and battery storage tech- be no logical role for gas in the mix.”
nology would soon undercut it, according to a Gas poses the risk of higher energy costs for
new report. consumers and additional transition challenges
Research by International Institute for Sus- for workers in the fossil fuel industry. Adding
tainable Development (IISD) concluded that methane emissions across the value chain, gas
such investment would be an economic disaster power could be as detrimental to the climate as
for South Africa and could negatively affect the coal, the IISD asserts.
country’s climate and ability to meet emissions The report argues that in an efficient energy
reductions commitments. mix, the majority (or bulk supply) of power
The IISD said in its study, entitled Gas Pres- should be as cheap as possible, while peaking
sure: Exploring the case for gas-fired power in plants should be used to cope with daily spikes
South Africa, that developing an extensive gas- in demand. Finally, balancing (or backup) power
to-power sector in South Africa from scratch is needed to smooth out peaks and valleys of
would cost ZAR47bn ($3.2bn) for the first 3,000 demand and supply.
MW of gas capacity. The IISD report found that wind and solar
The report warned that this money could ulti- farms in South Africa are 57% cheaper than
mately be wasted as gas is squeezed out of the combined-cycle gas plants for bulk electric-
market by cheaper, low-carbon alternatives. ity supply, while 3-hour battery storage is 30%
South Africa’s Department of Mineral cheaper than simple cycle gas plants for covering
Resources and Energy has proposed establish- peak power demand.
ing a gas-to-power sector as part of the energy South Africa’s existing electricity system,
transition. which mostly runs on coal power, can also pro-
However, the IISD study called for a morato- vide some of the balancing function in the short
rium on gas power in the country. to medium term.
“Based on system analysis, this would be a According to the report, significantly increas-
costly mistake,” said Richard Halsey, a policy ing renewables and storage capacity can address
advisor at the institute and co-author of the power system challenges that lead to frequent
report. load-shedding – the rotational power cuts by
“We strongly believe that a moratorium state-owned utility Eskom to maintain overall
should be placed on the development of the gas- grid stability.
to-power sector, and further research should be “To solve load-shedding as quickly as possi-
done to better understand how advances in alter- ble, and to build the foundation of an optimal,
natives to gas will affect the optimal energy mix.” low-cost future energy mix, South Africa should
Instead, the report found that renewables and significantly ramp up its investments in solar,
storage should be the priority until at least 2030. wind, storage and technologies that integrate
“The risks associated with gas are increasing, renewables into the grid,” said Halsey.
while the alternatives to gas are rapidly improv- “Since renewables contribute only a small
ing. Since gas is not needed in the power sector part of the electricity mix, a combination of
until at least 2035, deliberations about the start of existing pumped storage, liquid fuel generators,
a gas-to-power sector should be shelved until at grid integration methods and the remaining coal
least 2030,” said Halsey. fleet can provide the balancing function for at
“When the government reassesses gas invest- least the next 13 years.”™
ments at the end of the decade, based on the

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