Page 145 - RusRPTJul21

was originally announced at the beginning of June). The previous plan was 1.6% y/y growth, 1.1% below the 2019 level.
Over January-July 2019, railcar loadings totaled 741.6mn tonnes. To exceed that level, in June-July they would have to be not less than 215.8mn tonnes in total (107.9mn tonnes per month on average). We believe that this is achievable given that loadings averaged 109.3mn tonnes per month in March-May and amounted to 110.8mn tonnes in May.
The main drivers for higher loadings in April- May versus the 2019 level were coal, iron ore, building materials, fertilizers and containers on the back of favorable conditions in export markets and the start of the construction season. Based on the trends of the last months, we think that RZhD's recently upgraded target for full-year volumes also looks realistic.
The solid growth of loadings of coal, iron ore and building materials has supported spot lease rates for gondola railcars, which in June increased to R850/day (from R700 in March-April).
145 RUSSIA Country Report July 2021 www.intellinews.com