Page 24 - UKRRptMay19

3.0 Macro Economy Main Macro
2018F
3.40% 6.10%
12.00%
3.50% 3516
131
8.80%
indicators 2008
Business cycle indicators
2009
-14.80%
-14.90%
-50.50%
-21.90%
913
117 2,550 12.30% 15.90%
9.60%
2010 2011 2012
2013
2014
-6.60%
-8.30%
2015
-9.80%
-20.70%
2016
2.30%
1.80%
2017
2.50%
7.80%
Real GDP, chg yoy
Household consumption, chg yoy
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
2.30%
11.80%
1.60%
4.10% 5.20% 0.20% 0.00%
7.10% 15.70% 8.40% 6.90%
Industrial output, chg
yoy -5.20%
3.90%
11.20%
1,079
136 2,972 9.10% 9.40%
8.90%
7.10% 5.00% -6.70% 8.00% -0.70% -4.30%
-24.00% -9.20% 20.10% 18.20% -10.10% -13.00% 2.80% 0.40%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
Nominal GDP, USD bln
GDP per capita, USD CPI (eop)
CPI average
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
Source: SP Advisors
948
180 3,891 22.30% 25.20%
6.90%
1,300
8.70% 8.20% 7.80%
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
1,405
176
3,865
4.60% -0.20% 0.50% 8.00% 0.60% -0.30%
163 3,580
183 4,030
3086 8.90%
Ukraine's economy grew by 1.2% year-on-year with possible adjustment of plus or minus 0.2 percentage points (pp) in January-February, according to preliminary estimates of the nation's Economy Ministry published on April 9. According to the ministry, active operations of construction enterprises and enterprises providing services in transport, retail trade, education, health care as well as the banking sector contributed significantly to the economic growth. Specifically, the volume of construction of engineering structures increased by 36.9% y/y, non-residential buildings by 18.6% y/y. According to Ukraine's state statistics service Ukrstat, the nation's GDP grew by 3.3% y/y in 2018 following a 2.5% y/y growth in 2017 and a 2.4% y/y growth in 2016. Ukrstat has also improved the estimate of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 3/4% y/y to 3.5% y/y. According to official data, the nation's GDP grew by 2.8% y/y (0.4% q/q) in the third quarter of 2018. In March, the nation's Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said that the Ukrainian government forecasts the economic growth by over 3% y/y in 2019.
24 UKRAINE Country Report May 2019 www.intellinews.com
1,465
1,587
134 3,117
1,989
91 2,134
2,383
93 2,193
2 983
112 2 638
24.90% 43.30% 12.40% 13.70%
12.10% 48.70% 13.90% 14.40% 11.90%
9.70% 9.50% 9.70%
9.50%