Page 25 - UKRRptMay19

3.2 Macro outlook
Ukrainian Economy Ministry has revised downward its forecast for the growth of Ukraine's real GDP in 2019 to 2.8% year-on-year from 3% y/y. The ministry also forecasts the 2020 growth at 3.8% y/y, in 2021 at 4.1% y/y, according to local media. In March, the nation's Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said that the Ukrainian government forecasts the economic growth by over 3% y/y in 2019. Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has kept unchanged its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2019 and 2020 at 2.7% year-on-year and 3% y/y respectively. According to Ukraine's state statistics service Ukrstat, the nation's GDP grew by 3.3% y/y in 2018 following a 2.5% y/y growth in 2017 and a 2.4% y/y growth in 2016. Ukrstat has also improved the estimate of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 3/4% y/y to 3.5% y/y. According to official data, the nation's GDP grew by 2.8% y/y (0.4% q/q) in the third quarter of 2018.
The World Bank has worsened the forecast for the growth of Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to 2.7% from 2.9%, according to the April review of the World Bank "Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2019: Financial Inclusion." According to the document, the World Bank retained the forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2020 at the level of 3.4%, while for 2021 lowered to 3.7% from 3.8%. According to the World Bank's new economic forecast, economic growth in Europe and Central Asia will slow down to 2.1% in 2019 from 3.1% last year due to a slowdown in the global growth and uncertain prospects. According to the recent data of the State Statistics Service, in 2018 Ukraine's GDP grew by 3.3%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has kept unchanged its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2019 and 2020 at 2.7% year-on-year and 3% y/y respectively, according to the multinational lender's World Economic Outlook published on April 9. According to Ukraine's state statistics service Ukrstat, the nation's GDP grew by 3.3% y/y in 2018 following a 2.5% y/y growth in 2017 and a 2.4% y/y growth in 2016.
25 UKRAINE Country Report May 2019 www.intellinews.com