Page 9 - AsiaElec Week 14 2021

AsiaElec GAS-FIRED GENERATION AsiaElec

AEMO: LNG imports can delay

Australian gas supply shortages

P THE Australian Energy Market Operator “This development comes at a critical time, as
(AEMO) has said an anticipated shortfall in existing Victorian production is declining faster
natural gas supplies can be delayed as long the than previously projected,” Falcon said. “Our
country begins importing liquefied natural gas annual analysis shows that without the [PKGT],
(LNG) by the end of 2023. the decline in flexible gas from existing fields
In its annual Gas Statement of Opportunities would mean we need to rely heavily on storage,
(GSOO), which was published on March 29, the and increasingly on constrained pipeline infra-
operator said it predicted an improved outlook structure to meet the needs of gas consumers,
for gas supply until at least 2026 across the east- especially during high demand days in winter,”
ern and south-eastern gas systems as long as cer- she said.
tain parameters were achieved. AEMO’s GSOO also highlighted that the
It noted that the outlook was more optimis- gas sector was on the cusp of transformation,
tic as long as committed field developments and with changes in consumption patterns forecast
pipeline expansions proceeded as planned and and alternative supply sources being actively
the Port Kembla Gas Terminal (PKGT) entered developed.
operation before the 2023 winter. “Australia’s energy sector is going through a
Squadron Energy is developing the LNG rapid transition, driven by changes in consumer
import project at the titular New South Wales behaviour and efforts to decarbonise the system,”
port and aims to supply more than 75% of the Falcon said. “This report recognises the poten-
state’s annual gas needs once the facility is up and tial of electrification, fuel switching to hydrogen,
running. the Australian Government’s vision for a gas-
AEMO, however, warned that southern sup- fired recovery and LNG imports to all influence
ply was at risk if PKGT was delayed and certain investment opportunities in the gas sector.”
conditions emerged, such as a 1-in-20 maximum She added: “Investments to address forecast
winter daily demand in Victoria, coincident supply gaps in the second half of this decade
peaks across southern regions, power-system need to consider the transformation under-
events significantly increasing gas-powered gen- way and be adaptable to manage changes in gas
eration (GPG) of electricity, or gas production consumption. There are a number of initiatives
outages. AEMO’s manager of forecasting, Nicola at both Commonwealth and state government
Falcon, said the announcement of the PKGT levels that could change the market and impact
had improved supply capacity with an estimated the outlook described in the report, including
injection of up to 500 TJ (13.02mn cubic metres) proposals to drive more gas into the system.”™
per day.

Week 14 07•April•2021 www. NEWSBASE .com P9