Page 47 - RusRPTMar20
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5.2.2 Current account dynamics
Russia's current account surplus came in at $9.5bn in January, versus $10.2bn in January 2019.
The trade surplus reached $14.6bn last month versus $14.4bn in January 2019. Exports were likely higher this January due to the higher oil price (Brent averaged 6.7% y/y higher last month), while imports probably offset the export gains somewhat due to the stronger ruble (up 10.4% y/y versus the bi-currency basket and up 9.0% versus the dollar on average in January).
The stronger ruble stemmed from lower capital outflow from the private sector, which narrowed to $7.3bn in January versus $9.3bn in January 2019. The CBR's reserves rose by $7.1bn in January versus $1.9bn growth in January 2019. The purchases made under the budget rule accounted for the bulk of the increase (about $5bn in January).
Sberbank projects a current account surplus for this year of $55bn, versus $70.6bn in 2019.
47 RUSSIA Country Report March 2020 www.intellinews.com
