Page 52 - RusRPTMar20

6.0​ Public Sector 6.1​ Budget
Key parameters: draft federal budget for 2020-22
Units
2018
2019 (current law)
2020F
2021F
2022F
Revenues
RUB bn
19,454.40
20,174.90
20,593.00
21,246.50
22,058.30
Revenues
% GDP
18.7
18.5
18
17.7
17.2
Expenditure
RUB bn
16,713.00
18,293.70
19 ,671
20,632.00
21,770.70
Expenditure
% GDP
16.1
16.8
17.3
17.1
16.9
Balance
RUB bn
2741.4
1,881.20
880.8
614.5
287.6
Balance
% GDP
2.6
1.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
Source: MinFin, VTB Capital Research.
Federal budget: surplus allocation and debt financing
RUB bn
2019 (current law)
2020F
2021F
2022F
Total
-1881.2
-880.8
-614.5
-287.6
% GDP
1.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
including:
Debt
1409.7
1599.5
1718.5
1874.5
NWF
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.1
Other
-3295.7
-2484.9
-2337.4
-2166.1
Source: MinFin, VTB Capital Research.
The government has submitted its first revision of the federal budget for this year in February.
This revision accounts for three key developments: i) the extension of social policy announced in the Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly, ii) the transfer of ownership of Sberbank to the state, which partly funds the extension, iii) revision of the revenue projections related to general changes in macroeconomic conditions.
The revision changed the numbers for 2020 only slightly: spending was up RUB160bn, which matched the scale of the mark up in non-oil and gas revenues. Oil and gas revenues were just RUB50bn higher.
The non-oil revenue revision for 2020 was not driven by the transfer of the Sberbank ownership. Indeed, the government’s comments show that transfers from the CBR to the federal budget are RUB300bn and RUB400bn for 2021-22, but are zero for 2020. Instead, gains in non-oil revenues
52​ RUSSIA Country Report​ March 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com