Page 59 - UKRRptOct20

8.4 ​International ratings
Ukraine - Rating agency
as of July 1, 2020
last change
Moodys (USD rating)
B3 (S)
15/06/20
Fitch (USD rating)
B (S)
24/04/20
S&P
B (S)
27/09/19
Ukraine’s credit ratings have been improving but the country is still rated junk by the three main agencies.
S&P Global Ratings reported on September 11 it has affirmed its long-term foreign currency rating for Ukraine at B with a Stable rating outlook​. The risks “from the weak external environment and the potential for a reversal of past reforms” are balanced by the country's “external buffers,” S&P highlighted. Among the key reform risks, the agency mentioned the central bank's possible loss of independence, which could change its monetary policy and spoil Ukraine’s relationships with key creditors. Respectively, S&P could lower Ukraine’s ratings in case of “disruptions to funding from concessional programs or capital markets.” On its strong side is Ukraine’s increased gross foreign reserves and strengthened financial stability. S&P said it will improve Ukraine’s rating in case of faster-than-expected consolidation of public finances or outperformance of Ukraine’s external liquidity.​ ​S&P expects Ukraine’s real GDP will fall 6.0% in 2020, which will be followed by a 4.0% recovery in 2021 and 3.0% growth in 2022-2023. It forecasts Ukraine’s budget deficit will peak at 7.5% of GDP in 2020, declining to 5.3% in 2021, 3.0% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023. It forecasts Ukraine’s usable gross reserves to cover four months of current account payments on average through 2023.​ ​Recall, a week before, ​Fitch also affirmed​ Ukraine’s B rating with a Stable outlook.
59​ UKRAINE Country Report​ October 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com