Page 100 - Russia OUTLOOK 2023

Agriculture:
Russia’s grain harvest in the current agricultural year may reach 153mn
tonnes, including 111mn tonnes of wheat, smashing the previous all-time
high, director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies Dmitry Rylko said
in December. Rylko added that due to a decline in exports to Russia this year,
a record-breaking wheat stock of 17.7mn tonnes could be formed by the end of
the season. The forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture for the grain harvest in
Russia in 2022 was 150mn tonnes, including 100mn tonnes of wheat.

Russia has sown 17.7mn hectares of winter crops compared to a 19mn
hectare plan for 2022 because of weather problems, the Agriculture Ministry
said in a statement on December 8.

The volume of agricultural production in Russia in January-October 2022,
according to preliminary estimates, increased by 5% y/y and amounted to
RUB7.2 trillion ($117.9bn), according to RosStat. In October 2022, the figure
amounted to RUB1.31 trillion ($21.45bn). RosStat reported earlier that inflation
in Russia for November 22-28, 2022 amounted to 0.19%. A week earlier,
inflation in Russia was at the level of 0.11%.

The high result for this year’s harvest may be connected to the fact that
Russia has stolen or destroyed $1.9bn worth of agricultural products in
Ukraine. The estimated 2.8mn tonnes of grain and 1.2mn tonnes of oil seeds
were destroyed or stolen because of Russia’s war against Ukraine, according
to the Centre for Food and Land Use Research of the Kyiv School of
Economics (KSE).

Russia can harvest 83-90mn tonnes of wheat in 2023, Igor Pavensky,
director of the strategic marketing department of railway grain transport
operator Rusagrotrans, said on December 9. "Being optimistic, if the weather
is the same as during the harvesting season this year, we can reach 90mn
tonnes," Pavensky said, adding that the main forecast of the company is
moderate at about 83mn tonnes. The official said that winter sowing was fairly
successful, with about 3% of poor quality crops, the same as in 2021. A
serious frost and the lack of snow in the Orenburg Region and the eastern part
of the Tatarstan republic are among the possible threats. The sown area will
amount to 16.3mn hectares, after 17.1mn hectares in 2021.

100 Russia OUTLOOK 2022 www.intellinews.com