Page 76 - Russia OUTLOOK 2023

• Current account

According to preliminary data from the CBR, Russia posted a current
account surplus of $10.3bn in November, down from $17.7bn in October
and $16.5bn last November, but much higher than the surpluses seen in
November of 2019 and 2020.

This brought the current account surplus over 11m22 to $225.7bn. The
narrowing of the current account surplus in November was attributable to the
goods and services surplus, which shrank to $12.7bn from $19.3bn in October
due to lower oil and gas exports and a recovery in imports. This put the goods
and services surplus over 11m22 at $269.8bn. With all that being said, the
current account data is subject to revision.

The 11m22 data was generally in line with our expectations. We anticipate a
current account surplus of around $10bn in December as well. This would
bring the surplus over the full year to $235bn. Next year, we expect the current
account surplus to shrink to $120bn due to higher imports and lower exports.

There is little clarity on where the current account will be in 2023 but
analysts are fairly sure it will be in surplus again and by at least $100bn.

76 Russia OUTLOOK 2022 www.intellinews.com