Page 4 - AfrElec Week 33

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

Green energy grows during

lockdown, but not by enough

Solar and wind output grew 14% during lockdown, but the expansion is
too slow to meet the Paris Agreement goals, writes Richard Lockhart

GLOBAL WIND and solar now accounts for 9.8% of US and the EU, with falls of 31% and 32%
the world’s electricity, after rapid expansion in respectively.
WHAT: the first half of 2020 despite the coronavirus China’s coal generation diminished by only
Solar and wind now (COVID-19) lockdown. 2%, meaning its share of global coal generation
accounts for 9.8% of A recent report from UK think-tank Ember rose to 54% so far this year, up from 50% in 2019
global power output notes that wind and solar have quickly increased and 44% in 2015.
to become a major source of electricity, and are Looking back over five years, wind and solar
WHY: successfully reducing coal burn throughout the have captured a five percentage point market
Coal saw a notable world. share from coal since 2015.
decline, and wind and Global power demand shrank by 3% during Coal’s share contracted from 37.9% in 2015
solar proved resilient the first six months of 2020 because of corona- to 33% in the first half of 2020, as wind and solar
during lockdown virus, and the report found that wind and solar grew from 4.6% to 9.8%.
generation rose 14% year on year in the first half India’s change was even more dramatic: wind
WHAT NEXT: of 2020, generating 9.8% of global electricity, up and solar’s share rose from 3% of total genera-
Coal power output must from 8.1% in 2019 and 4.6% in 2015. tion in 2015 to 10% in the first half of 2020; at
fall by 13% every year The report looked at 48 countries, account- the same time, coal’s share fell from 77% to 68%.
to meet the 1.5 degree ing for 83% of global generation, where wind and Indeed, for the first time, the world’s coal fleet
goals, but the decline was solar generation rose from 992 TWh in 2019 to has run at less than half of its capacity so far in
only 8.3% 1,129 TWh the first six months of 2020. 2020.
Crucially, wind and solar generated almost as
much CO2-free power as nuclear power plants No fast enough
(NPPs), which generated 10.5% of global elec- However, although the fall is welcome, the
tricity in H1-2020, and whose share remained decrease of 8.3% in coal generation is not enough
unchanged from 2019. to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement targets.
The report warned that the global electricity
League table transition is off-track for 1.5 degrees. Coal needs
In terms of countries, most of the world’s lead- to fall by 13% every year this decade, and even
ing generators beat the global average of 9.8%. in the face of a global pandemic coal generation
These include: China (10%); the US (12%); India has only reduced 8% in the first half of 2020.
(10%); Japan (10%); Brazil (10%) and Turkey The IPCC’s 1.5 degree scenarios show coal
(13%). needs to decline to just 6% of global generation
The EU average was 21%, with Germany top- by 2030, from 33% in H1-2020. The IPCC shows
ping the list at 42%. Elsewhere in Europe, the UK in all scenarios most of coal’s replacement is
was the leader with 33% of electricity coming through wind and solar.
from solar and wind. “Countries across the world are now on the
Russia was a notable laggard, with just 0.2% of same path – building wind turbines and solar
its electricity being derived from wind and solar. panels to replace electricity from coal and
Alongside the rise of solar and wind, coal was gas-fired power plants. But to keep a chance
the major loser between January and June. of limiting climate change to 1.5 degrees, coal
Global coal generation fell 8.3% y/y, way generation needs to fall by 13% every year this
above the 3% decrease seen in 2019, which in decade.
itself had been a record drop. “The fact that, during a global pandemic,
The report found that although 70% of coal’s coal generation has still only fallen by 8% shows
fall can be attributed to lower electricity demand just how far off-track we still are. We have the
because of COVID-19, 30% can be attributed to solution, it’s working; it’s just not happening fast
increased wind and solar generation. enough.”
Global power demand fell by 3% in H1-2020
because of COVID-19. Country analysis
The race to reduce coal is being led by the With China now accounting for 54% of global

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 33 20•August•2020