Page 31 - RusRPTSept19

The IMF concluded:
● In 2014 - 2018, Russia lost an average of 0.2 pp from sanctions GDP growth per year. In monetary terms, losses amounted to about a trillion rubles, or about $ 15 billion.
● The fall in oil prices took an average of 0.65 percentage points. GDP.
● A tight budget policy cost the country 0.1 percentage points GDP
restraining monetary policy - 0.2 p.p.
● All these factors together reduced GDP growth by almost 1.2
percentage points. in year. As a result, the Russian economy for five years grew by only 2.5%, while in the absence of external shocks, growth would have approached 6%, follows from calculations based on the IMF model.
Key macroeconomic indicators "
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 5M19
2.3 0.5 2.9 4.3 2.8 1.7 4.3 5.1 6.8 2
114.9 48.7 2.7 2.7 62.7 65.7 69.5 65.4 70.8 66.4 7.75 7.75
2019e 2020e
1.1 2.3 2.1 2.5 1.5 2 4.2 3.8 1.3 1.8
118 93 1.9 1.6 65.3 64.5 64.7 65.4 70 75 7.25 6.75
GDP
Industrial output
Retail trade
Inflation (EOP)
Real wages
Current account, $ bn
Budget deficit, % of GDP
RUB/USD (avr) RUB/USD (EOP) Brent $ / bbl (avr) CBR rate
Source: Rosstat, BCS GM
0.7 -2.5 -0.2 1.6 1.7 -0.8 1.3 2.1 2.7 -10 -4.6 1.3
11.4 12.9 5.4 2.5 1.3 -9.5 0.6 2.9 59.5 69.6 25 35.2 -0.4 -2.5 -3.4 -1.4 38.4 61.1 67.1 58.3 56.2 72.9 60.7 57.6
99 52.4 43.6 54.3 17 11 10 7.75
31 RUSSIA Country Report September 2019
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