Page 33 - RusRPTSept19

4.0 Real Economy
Russia - Main Macro 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mar-2018 Indicators
Annual GDP (y/y, %)
3.41 1.34 0.64 -3.7 -0.5 1.5 1.5
GDP (per capita) (USD)
14,079 15,531 13,873 9,055 8,759 10,743 /
GDP: Private consumption expenditure (USD mn)
1,116,950 1,214,990 1,111,244 720,256 680,455 826,389 207,035
GDP: Public consumption expenditure (USD mn)
GDP: Gross fixed capital formation (USD mn)
391,097 425,831 375,081 244,282 236,063 283,696 79,723
471,337 496,982 428,573 276,240 280,350 342,294 58,303
GDP: Exports (USD mn)
524,697 527,266 497,834 343,543 285,772 357,816 102,956
GDP: Imports (USD mn)
Source: CEIC
4.1 Industrial production
317,177 314,967 286,669 182,719 182,347 227,502 54,820
Rosstat has reported that industrial production grew +2.8% y/y in July,
slightly below the Bloomberg consensus of +3.0% y/y.
Adjusted for seasonality and working days, IP contracted -0.4% m/m SWDA in July against the +1.1% m/m SWDA in June.
The IP breakdown shows growth was synchronised across industries: output in mining & quarrying was up +3.0% y/y, manufacturing was in the black +2.8% y/y. Electricity & gas and water supply increased +1.7% y/y and +1.6% y/y, respectively, mirroring July's cold weather, in our view.
The seeming inconsistency between the item-level data reported by Rosstat and the growth in mining & quarrying can, to a certain extent, be explained by items, which are absent from the report (such as LNG output, which, according to Reuters, was up +86% y/y in July, and non-metallic ores), according to Rosstat's comments.
Output in mining & quarrying accelerated to +3.0% y/y in July, from +2.3% y/y in June, according to Rosstat.
Analysts were expecting sector to see support from crude oil extraction through the remainder of the year, if only Russia extracts more than prescribed by the OPEC+ deal (like it did in 2H18).
If Russia remains fully compliant with the OPEC+ agreements, crude oil extraction will not show a positive growth rate in 2H19, according to VTBC estimates.
33 RUSSIA Country Report September 2019 www.intellinews.com