Page 7 - FSUOGM Week 22 2021

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

Shorter term ramp-up at Rospan and Kharampurskoye, with
Besides Rospan, another key project that Rosneft the pair only contributing 14 bcm per year in
is banking on to deliver growth is Kharampur- 2022 rather than 32 bcm as targeted by Rosneft.
skoye, operated by a joint venture between the The company has also lost some gas supply
company and BP. Currently the project, consist- through the sale of non-producing assets to
ing of the Kharampurskoye and Festivalnoye Neftegazholding last year. And it is negotiating
fields, yields under 1 bcm per year. But the part- the sale of its Vietnamese assets to Zarubezhneft.
ners want to raise this to 11 bcm and eventually Meanwhile, Rosneft’s associated gas supply
14 bcm per year during two development stages. will remain suppressed as a result of OPEC+ cuts
The first phase, which will target Cenomanian at its oilfields, which will remain in force until
deposits, is on track to start production next year April 2022.
and reach full capacity in 2025. At this point the As such, Rystad predicts the company will
second stage, developing Turonian-level gas, produce a mere 72 bcm in 2022, which is far
should come online. short of the 100 bcm target.
All told, the project’s reserves are assessed at 1
trillion cubic metres. Longer term
Combined, Rospan and Kharampurskoye Over the longer term, however, Rosneft has
would bring Rosneft close to its 100 bcm per enough gas resources to easily surpass the 100
year goal. But both have undergone delays and bcm mark.
could slip further behind schedule. Rospan was Other projects in the pipeline include Kyn-
originally expected online in 2019, and Khara- sko-Chaselskoye, comprising six gas discoveries
mpurskoye in 2020. Construction and installa- in the Yamalo-Nenets region. The project’s first
tion work at Kharampurskoye’s gas treatment phase is targeting 8.7 bcm per year of supply,
unit was only 40% complete by the end of 2020, while its second will contribute 7 bcm. And a
according to Rosneft’s annual report, and the further 3.3 bcm per year may also be possible.
company is also in litigation over delays with Rystad expects the first-phase plateau to be
one of the contractors it hired to build a pipeline reached after 2025. The Chayvo gas expansion
connecting the field with the Gazprom national project in the Far East will also contribute to
system. Rosneft is also yet to start pilot produc- future growth, as will gas development at the
tion from the Turonian layers to confirm their Vankor fields.
reserves. All told, Rystad anticipates Rosneft’s gas
Rystad Energy “believes that further delays production hitting 100 bcm per year towards
are likely given the difficulties faced by the Rus- the end of the decade. Post-2030, there are also
sian service sector after recent oil market tur- Rosneft’s vast Arctic reserves to consider. The
bulence,” the Oslo-based consultancy says. “To company has suggested before it could pro-
cope with low prices, many E&P companies duce as much as 50mn tonnes per year (tpy)
turned to 180-day payment schedules, meaning of LNG from fields at its Vostok Oil project in
that contractors may have to wait six months for the northern Taymyr Peninsula, plus a further
their money instead of 30 days.” 30mn tpy from recent gas discoveries it has
Rystad also points to the government’s failure made in the Kara Sea. But considerable time
to launch a support scheme to give service com- and effort is needed to appraise and de-risk
panies drilling orders through the downturn. these resources, devise feasible plans for their
These companies are short of cash and at risk of development and attract the necessary inter-
bankruptcy. national financing and expertise to bring them
The consultancy therefore projects a slow into production. ™

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