Page 4 - AfrElec Week 43 2022

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

Flattening the emissions curve:

too slow, too late, say UN

climate scientists

COMMENTARY THE combined climate pledges of 193 govern- emissions would continue to rise beyond 2030.
ments would limit global warming to 2.5°C by The best forecast in the report, which would
2100, way above the Paris Agreement goals of rely on all current NDCs being implemented in
1.5°C. future with all their conditional elements, would
UN Climate Change said in its 2022 NDC mean that emissions would stand at 49.1bn
synthesis report that countries were manag- tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2030, 6.6% lower
ing to bend the curve of global greenhouse gas than 2019 levels of 52.6bn tonnes and 5.1% less
(GHG) emissions downwards. While welcome, than 2025 emissions of 51.8bn tonnes. This fore-
the report underlined that these efforts remained cast foresees emission levelling out before 2025.
insufficient to limit global temperature rise to the These conditional elements are a hard sell,
Paris limit of 1.5°C. though, requiring a range of optimal develop-
The report found that current commitments ments. These include: access to enhanced finan-
will increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030 com- cial resources; technology transfer and technical
pared to 2010 levels. co-operation; capacity-building support; availa-
This is an improvement over the same body’s bility of market-based mechanisms; and absorp-
2021 assessment, which found countries were on tive capacity of forests and other ecosystems.
a path to increase emissions by 13.7% by 2030 A more realistic forecast, which only takes
compared to 2010 levels. into account current active NDCs, puts 2030
emissions at 52.5bn tonnes, although this is still
Emissions peak below the 2025 forecast of 53.4bn tonnes, sug-
The major positive take-away from the report gesting that peak emissions would be reached
is the best scenario, emissions are no longer between 2025 and 2030.
forecast to be increasing after 2030, in contrast The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-
to the 2021 forecast, which showed projected mate Change’s 2018 report indicated that CO2

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