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Net zero by 2050 could

cost $173 trillion: BNEF

GLBOAL ACHIEVING net-zero carbon emissions by emissions in the next nine years falls to the power
2050 will require as much as $173 trillion in sector and to faster deployment of wind and solar
investments in the energy transition, according PV.
to BloombergNEF’s (BNEF) New Energy Out- Another 14% is achieved with greater use
look 2021 (NEO). of electricity in transport, in heating for build-
BNEF said in a statement that investment in ings and in providing low-temperature heat in
energy supply and infrastructure amounted to industry.
between $92 trillion and $173 trillion over the Greater recycling in steel, aluminium and
next 30 years. plastics accounts for a 2% drop in emissions,
Annual investment will need to more than greater building efficiency 0.5%, and growth of
double to achieve this, rising from around $1.7 bioenergy for sustainable aviation fuel and ship-
trillion per year today, to $3.1-5.8 trillion per ping another 2%.
year on average over the next three decades. This period also requires the piloting and
“The capital expenditures needed to achieve scaling-up of new technology for deep decar-
net zero will create enormous opportunities for bonisation post 2030.
investors, financial institutions and the private “There is no time to waste. If the world is
sector, while creating many new jobs in the green to achieve or get close to meeting net zero by
economy,” said Jon Moore, CEO of BNEF. mid-century, then we need to accelerate deploy-
Renewable energy and electrification are the ment of the low-carbon solutions we have this
backbone of the transition and must be accel- decade – that means even more wind, solar, bat-
erated immediately, while hydrogen, carbon teries and electric vehicles, as well as heat pumps
capture and new modular nuclear plants are for buildings, recycling and greater electricity use
emerging tools that should be developed and in industry, and redirecting biofuels to shipping
deployed as soon as possible. and aviation,” said BNEF chief economist Seb
The next nine years will be crucial to getting Henbest.
on track to limit rising temperatures in line with In terms of generation, the report called for
the Paris Climate Agreement, and require a rapid 505 GW of new wind power each year until 2030
doubling of current annual investment of $1.7 if the world is to stay on the road to net zero. Also,
trillion in the energy system. 455 GW of solar PV is needed each year until
In terms of emissions, global energy-related 2030, as well as 245 GWh per year batteries and
emissions need to drop 30% below 2019 levels 35mn EVs per year.
by 2030, and 75% by 2040 if the world is to reach Coal-fired power generation must fall 72%
net zero in 2050. from 2019 levels by 2030, and retire up to around
This requires a 3.2% reduction each year to 70%, or 1,417 GW, of coal-fired power capacity
2030 and a swift reversal of recent trends: emis- by 2030.
sions rose 0.9% a year from 2015 to 2020. Some 83% of primary energy is currently
The power sector needs to make the greatest fossil fuels, while wind and solar PV account for
progress over the next decade, reducing emis- 1.3%.
sions by 57% from 2019 levels by 2030, and then In BNEF’s Green Scenario, which prioritises
89% by 2040. clean electricity and green hydrogen, wind and
Yet every sector of the energy economy needs solar grow to 15% of primary energy in 2030, and
to cut emissions steeply to achieve net-zero. 70% in 2050. In contrast, fossil fuels drop some
Road transport emissions must fall 11% by 7% a year, and account for just 10% of supply by
2030, then drop faster during the 2030s to reach 2050.
80% below 2019 levels in 2040. In the Red Scenario, which prioritises nuclear
In order to achieve these drastic emissions for hydrogen production, nuclear fuel makes up
reductions in line with a long-term trajectory a whopping 66% of primary energy in 2050,
to net zero this decade commercially available compared with 5% now.
abatement technologies need to be deployed in In contrast, BNEF’s Grey Scenario, where
each sector. widespread use of carbon capture and storage
More than three quarters of the effort to cut (CCS) means coal and gas ™

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 29 22•July•2021