Page 4 - AfrOil Week 10 2022

AfrOil COMMENTARY AfrOil

Nigeria LNG tanker (Photo: NLNG)
Implications for Africa

Experts from Rystad Energy and Welligence Energy Analytics speak to NewsBase about what

the Russia-Ukraine conflict might mean for oil and gas producers in sub-Saharan Africa

RUSSIA’S invasion of Ukraine on February 24 new opportunity for oil- and gas-rich states in
hit the geopolitical scene like a bolt of light- sub-Saharan Africa.
WHAT: ning, and the shock spread quickly to the global The following is a lightly edited version of the
Given Russia’s position economy as a consequence of the sanctions that responses received from Derek Boulware, head
as a major oil and gas Western states have imposed on Russia. of sub-Saharan Africa research at Welligence
exporter, the current And there are surely more storms to come. Energy Analytics, and Siva Prasad, senior ana-
conflict has the potential The EU and the US have begun expanding their lyst at Rystad Energy.
to make projects in sanctions regimes to encompass crude oil and
sub-Saharan Africa more natural gas, two of Russia’s most valuable (and Investor sentiment
attractive.
politically useful) exports. In turn, Russia has Question: How are recent developments on
WHY: imposed a freeze on commodity exports out to world oil and gas markets (rising prices, talk of
African gas may draw the end of the year. sanctioning Russian oil and gas exports) likely to
more short-term interest The parameters of this freeze are not yet clear. affect investor sentiment on upstream projects
than oil. But since Russia is the world’s largest gas pro- in sub-Saharan Africa?
ducer and one of the world’s top three produc- Siva Prasad: Considering the amount of
WHAT NEXT: ers of oil and wheat, this move has the potential natural gas potential that sub-Saharan Africa
African gas-producing to wreak economic havoc in many parts of the holds and the need for Europe to find an alter-
states will have to world – partly by driving food and fuel prices nate source of natural gas [following] Rus-
demonstrate their ability up and partly by complicating its relationships sia’s invasion of Ukraine, sub-Saharan Africa
to provide adequate sup- with countries that depend on imports of these definitely stands at a point where previously
port for LNG projects. basic commodities. stalled/delayed projects might come into [the]
Under such circumstances, it is worth ask- limelight.
ing what these developments might mean for We are already seeing BP, which was one
other producers of commodities such as oil of the first operators to announce its exit from
and gas. NewsBase has therefore sought the Russia, start studies on its BirAllah gas discov-
opinion of two energy experts on the question ery offshore Mauritania, targeting LNG sales to
of whether recent development represent a Europe.

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 10 09•March•2022