Page 105 - RusRPTJan22

The 2022 EBITDA might exceed RUB4tn ($54bn), and net income be above RUB2.5tn ($33bn).Capex in 2022 and thereafter might be at RUB2tn ($27bn).
Funding in 2022, RUB30bn ($0.4bn) of perpetual bonds are to be placed to finance the gasification programme.
And the company will hike dividend payouts to record levels: Sadygov thinks that 2021 dividend per share (DPS) payments might exceed RUB45, which is up multiple times from the historic RUB8 per share the company paid for years.
Gazprom reported its 11M21 operating results on 15 December. Production was up 14% y/y to 467.6bcm, or 45bcm in November (1.5bcm per day).
Non-FSU exports were up 8% y/y to 171.5bcm but down 5% vs. 11M18. If we exclude China from the export figure, we see exports to Europe and Turkey at 162.7bcm for 11M21, down 10% vs. 11M18, implying that c. 17bcm less was sent to Europe. On our calculations, this gap increased from 10.5bcm at 9M21 to 17.2bcm by 11M21.
The average export flow rate excluding China was 0.49bcm per day for 11M21, and exports to Europe would amount to 15.1bcm in December at this rate, bringing the total for the year to 177.9bcm, which is below Gazprom’s guidance of 183bcm.
We are not seeing an increase in exports in the daily flow rates reported by European operators.
Flows via Mallnow, Velke Kapusany, Sokhranivka, Sudzha, Kondratki, Strandzha 2 (TurkStream) and Nord Stream were up vs. the start November at 453mn m3 per day. Flows through Ukraine, which are included in our calculation of 453mn m3 per day, were at 109.6mn m3 per day.
Production this year is averaging 1.4bcm per day, but this includes production at Chayanda, which we can assume is producing at least 0.03bcm per day. For November, average daily production increased to 1.5bcm, a figure that has only been reached six other times since January 2014 based on the data we have, and two of these months were January-February 2021. In Gazprom’s annual report for 2020, the maximum daily gas production in autumn and winter was 1.513bcm in 2017/18, 1.539bcm in 2018/19 and 1.514bcm in 2019/20. This implies that Gazprom is producing close to the upper range of its capabilities, though there is likely to be some extra output that could be found, as the November figure of 1.5bcm includes Chayanda.
105 RUSSIA Country Report January 2022 www.intellinews.com