Page 106 - RusRPTJan22

We calculate that Gazprom is exporting c. 35% of the gas it produces (excluding China), down from 40% in 11M18. That said, we likely are not accounting for all of Chayanda’s production, which is included in the number reported by Gazprom, as well as for any production in regions that cannot export to Europe, e.g. Kamchatka (though these volumes are small). During the 3Q21 conference call, management said that total gas demand in Russia was up 46bcm for 9M21, while Russian sales in 9M21 were up 12.5% y/y to 171bcm (up 8bcm vs. 9M18).
Gazprom has bought three oil and gas condensate areas in Yakutia at auction for RUB1.19bn ($16mn), although the initial price was RUB24.5mn, Interfax and Vedomosti report. Gazprom received the Tyukyansky, Kastyr-Sakharny and Varvarinsky areas (RUB202mn, RUB748mn and RUB243.2mn, respectively). The total resources at the areas purchased by Gazprom areas estimated at 13.4 bcm.
Gazprom ’s Board of Directors has approved the 2022 investment programme and budget. The parameters of the investment programme are unchanged from those that the Management Committee approved back in November.
Separately, Gazprom’s Deputy Chairman of the Management Committee Famil Sadygov gave an interview. The key points are as follows.
Gazprom’s 2021 financials will be at record levels: EBITDA of some RUB 3.5tn (USD 48bn), net income in excess of RUB 2tn (USD 27bn) and FCF of more than RUB 1tn (USD 14bn).
2021 capex will be RUB 1.9tn, or some USD 25bn (excl. VAT). The company has already started to implement the 2022 investment programme.
YE21 net debt to EBITDA is to be below 1x.
The 2022 budget assumes an average export price of USD 250/kcm next year (including Europe, China and the FSU), although the company thinks it is possible to achieve USD 280/kcm. Even if spot prices plummet, the realised export price in 2022 is to be above the 2021 level.
2022 EBITDA might exceed RUB 4tn (USD 54bn), and net income be above RUB 2.5tn (USD 33bn).Capex in 2022 and thereafter might be at RUB 2tn (USD 27bn).
106 RUSSIA Country Report January 2022 www.intellinews.com