Page 108 - RusRPTJan22

In 2021, 48.6% of Gazprom Export’s contracts were linked to spot (up to one month), 32.6% to forwards and 18.8% to oil prices. This structure is similar to 2020. New contracts favour the forward link.
Gazprom is discussing MET relief for several new projects. In management’s view, this could support gasification.
Gazprom intends to follow its dividend policy strictly and pay 50% of adjusted net income, not more. No buyback is planned for 2022, but the company does not rule one out for the future. The remainder of FCF after dividends is to be used to ensure financial stability.
Gazprom Neft’s capex is to grow from RUB470bn to RUB522bn next year.
Gazprom Neft sees itself paying DPS of RUB51 for 2021.
Analysts assume 242bcm of total gas export volumes (including FSU and China exports), which exceeds the budgeted amount and also assume higher domestic volumes than in the budget. This, and the quite conservative price assumptions create a wedge between VTB’s forecast and the budget. The current gas futures curve suggests TTF forward at $1,641/kcm for 2022 on average (which is well above our conservative gas price assumptions for next year).
Regarding Gazprom Neft’s guidance, we expect RUB55 DPS for 2021F (8% above the guidance). The guided DPS of RUB51 implies a 9% DY. For 2022F, we expect Gazprom Neft to pay RUB63 per share (or an 11% DY) under the current oil futures curve. We account for RUB545bn of capex next year, which is more conservative than the guidance.
● Rosneft
The Board of Directors of Rosneft has approved the Rosneft-2030: Reliable Energy and Global Energy Transition strategy. The key takeaways are below.
Rosneft has set a net zero target for 2050 (Scope 1 and 2 operational emissions).
It has also set intermediate aims (to 2030) to deliver the path to net zero: a 25% reduction of Scope 1-2 emissions in absolute terms vs. the 2020 level, zero routine flaring of associated petroleum gas and methane intensity reduction to less than 0.2%; Rosneft aims to keep its leadership in production costs.
108 RUSSIA Country Report January 2022 www.intellinews.com