Page 112 - RusRPTJan22

It also said that if fuel prices do not subside, it would be ready to respond: through the shortened booking curve, it can reallocate increased prices onto customers more quickly than it could before the pandemic.
4Q21 expectations
Given the established trends and the company's guidance, we see 4Q21F as follows: revenues at RUB129bn (16% down to 4Q19), EBITDA at RUB20bn (27% decline), and a net loss at RUB15bn (which is between the RUB7bn loss in 4Q19 and the RUB17bn loss in 4Q18).
The cash burn is to be around RUB15bn (we note that we had previously expected a RUB30bn burn).
After having fine-tuned our model for the reported numbers, we reiterate our 12-mo TP of RUB90 (ETR +47%), and Buy. The stock trades with a 2023F EV/EBITDA of 4.4x, in line with its DM peers (vs. the 18% 3y average premium), and at a 26% discount to its EM peers (vs. 23% average discount). The closest major catalyst for the name is the approval of the Russian vaccine in Europe, which could take place by the end of 4Q21 or during 1Q22.
9.2.5 Retail corporate news
• X5 Group
X5 Retail Group, Russia’s largest food retailer, is piloting a new store format of its Perekrestok supermarkets with a floor area of less than 300 sq m and a limited product range featuring its bestselling products. The new Jam Perekrestok stores will be located within walking distance of offices and residential buildings. The first store has already opened in Moscow, with two more stores to be piloted in St Petersburg before the year end. The format’s product range is five times smaller than at Perekrestok supermarkets, with around 3,000 SKUs consisting entirely of products that have received the highest customer ratings. Fresh categories, including fruit, vegetables, dairy products, ready-to-eat foods, pastries and more, account for 60% of the product range. The share of private label goods is 30%, with a special focus on Zelenaya Liniya [Green Line] health foods. The pilot store has a café with a separate seating area, as well as Wi-Fi and charging stations for customer use. The store features self-checkouts for a more comfortable shopping experience. In addition, the store has containers to collect batteries and plastic bags for recycling. X5 has another four small format store openings scheduled in Moscow for early 2022, with further potential scale-up of the project.
112 RUSSIA Country Report January 2022 www.intellinews.com