Page 114 - RusRPTJan22

retailers. We model its online revenues increasing 2.7x, from RUB54bn in 2021F to RUB225bn by 2025F, and keeping a 12% market share. To monetise its assets, the company is considering joint ventures with sizable investors or an IPO in the medium term However, while that represents an upside risk, it would require tangible progress and is not priced into the investment case, in our opinion.
Overall, we do not anticipate any notable changes to the competitive online landscape as a result of the transaction and think that the top five e-commerce food retailers (Sbermarket, X5 Group, Vkusvill, Samokat and Yandex.Lavka) will continue to consolidate the segment.
9.2.6 Agriculture corporate news
Rusagro outgoing CEO Maxim Basov gave an interview to Vedomosti. The key highlights are as follows.
· Three core expansion pillars. Organic growth by launching new projects and improving existing projects' utilisation; increase in sale of B2C products (including substitution of animal protein and fats for vegetable-based ones on the domestic market, entrance into new export destinations); investments in digital technologies and innovations.
· Russia has one of the lowest costs of wheat cultivation globally - USD 600/ha, vs. USD 900/ha in the US and USD 1,800/ha in Germany, while global wheat consumption is to grow 1.3% YoY (765mnt) this season.
· Farmers continue to hold their vegetable seeds stock, aiming to sell at higher prices. Domestic consumption is unlikely to be pressured, since it accounts for only 20–25% of total production, the rest is
114 RUSSIA Country Report January 2022 www.intellinews.com