Page 125 - RusRPTJan22

Gondola rates on an uptrend. With breakeven at $45-50/t, Russian coal producers are unwinding inventories and increasing exports. This lifts demand for gondolas, with rates now at RUB1,357/day (doubled YTD). We expect them to peak at RUB1,450/day during 1Q22F (26% below the previous top of RUB1,925/day in 2019), and revert then to RUB1,000-1,100/day in the next two years.
2H21F and 1H22F. We forecast Globaltrans posting EBITDA of RUB13bn for 2H21F (up 30% HoH) and RUB16bn for 1H22F (up 20% y/y). Then, we expect a steady decline along with rates.
9.2.13 Other sector corporate news
Sistema reported its 3Q21 results on 2 December. Overall, we see the results release and the comments made by management during the conference call as neutral for the stock.
Revenue came in 3-4% higher than our and consensus estimates, mainly thanks to the robust performances of Steppe and Binnopharm Group. Although adjusted EBITDA beat consensus by 2%, it was in line with our estimate, as Steppe’s stronger-than-expected results were offset by the weaker profitability of BPGC and Business Nedvizhimost. Corporate-center net financial liabilities continued to expand (+26% y/y and +2% q/q), and the company sees scope for a further increase in leverage. For now, Sistema has not provided any clarity on the timeline for potentially monetizing its key non-public assets. We think a prospective near-term catalyst for the stock could be a decision from the BoD on the potential expansion of the company’s buyback program, which could be discussed at the beginning of 2022.
The 3Q21 results were better than consensus on revenue and EBITDA. Sistema’s revenue expanded 22% y/y to RUB225.1bn, beating our estimates and Interfax consensus by 3-4%. The top line was better than we anticipated mainly due to the stronger-than-expected revenue performances of Steppe (+88% y/y) and Binnopharm Group (+28% y/y). Revenue growth in Medsi (+7% y/y) slightly undershot our estimates due to the weaker-than-expected performance of the average check (-8% y/y). Sistema’s adjusted EBITDA was up 5% y/y to RUB75bn, coming in 2% higher than consensus but in line with our estimates, as Steppe’s stronger-than-expected results were offset by the weaker profitability of BPGC and Business Nedvizhimost. Adjusted net profit fell 12% y/y to RUB2.3bn, coming in 35% below our forecast due to greater-than-expected negative changes in the fair value of financial
125 RUSSIA Country Report January 2022 www.intellinews.com