Page 127 - SE Outlook Regions 2022

As the new ruling coalition promises to stick with a cash deficit target of
5.84% of GDP in 2022 and the nominal GDP will rise, the indebtedness
as reflected by the debt to GDP ratio would not rise much over 50% at
the end of next year.

Moody's projects Romania’s debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise in
2022 and 2023, and peak in 2024 at 56.6% (gross terms) before
starting to decline in 2025.

Under a more optimistic scenario (not far from the government’s plans)
Standard & Poor’s projects a milder trajectory of the public debt to GDP
ratio, seen as remaining below 50% in net terms by the end of the
forecast period (48.1% in 2024, after peaking at 48.6% in 2023) and not
much above 50% in gross terms (52.4% in 2023 and 51.6% in 2024).

4.10 Budget and debt - Serbia

At the end of November 2021, members of the Serbian parliament
adopted the Law on Budget for 2022, which envisages revenues of
RSD1,516.8bn and expenditures of RSD1,717bn, so that the budget
deficit will amount to RSD200.2bn, or 3% of GDP.

As of the end of the second quarter of 2021, the total external debt
amounted to 65.8% of GDP. Companies' indebtedness increased by
€507.0mn, and the banking sector decreased its indebtedness by
€260.3mn compared to the end of the previous year. At the same time,
public sector indebtedness increased by €1.3bn. Compared to the end
of 2020, the ratio of external debt to exports was reduced, while the
ratio of external debt to GDP remained unchanged, according to the
Ministry of Finance.

4.11 Budget and debt - Slovenia

In the amended budget for 2022, the government plans revenues of
€11.47bn, which is 4.2% more than in the adopted budget for 2022.

Expenditures are planned at a total of €13.94bn or 10.7% more than in
the previous budget plan. The budget deficit planned for 2022 is set at
4.6% of the country’s GDP. For 2021, it plans a budget gap of 5.6% of
GDP.

Along with investments in key areas, the 2022 budget offers an
opportunity for the long-term development and prosperity of the country,
according to the government.

127 SE Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com