Page 6 - AfrElec Week 20

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec
Green energy shows resilience during global pandemic
Capacity additions are set to fall by 13% to 167GW, but growth is expected to return in 2021, writes Richard Lockhart
GLOBAL
WHAT:
Global renewables additions to fall 13% to 167GW in 2020
WHY:
COVID-19 has meant fewer projects coming online
WHAT NEXT:
Renewables have proved resilient, and should recover quickly
GLOBAL renewable energy installations are forecast to dip 13% to 167 GW in 2020, as fewer wind turbines and solar plants are to be brought online, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Renewable Market Update, released on May 20.
This is the first drop in annual additions for 20 years, but growth is expected to return in 2021 as most of the delayed projects are brought online and assuming a continuation of support- ive government policies, the IEA said.
Despite the negative forecast, the reported stressed that renewables have so far shown impressive resilience despite the coronavirus (COVID-19) inspired disruptions.
Also, global renewable generating capacity is forecast to grow by 6% in 2020.
The 13% drop in additions was caused by sup- ply chain disruptions in the construction sector, lockdown measures and social distancing guide- lines, as well as emerging financing challenges.
But despite the 2021 rebound, combined growth for 2020 and 2021 is predicted to be 10% lower than the IEA’s pre-crisis forecast.
Markets
The update found that all mature renewables markets are affected by downward revisions, except the US, where investors are rushing to finish projects before tax credits expire.
After exceptional growth in 2019, Europe’s new additions are set to fall by 33% to 22.2 GW in 2020, their largest annual decline since 1996.
China will add 72.6 GW in 2020, while the US will add 23.5 GW, India 10.8 GW, Japan 6.5 GW and Brazil 2.6 GW.
Crucially, both China and the US will still post growth in new additions in 2020, China expanding by 11% and the US by 6.8%.
Solar
The report expects solar PV to account for 90 MW of the 167 GW of new additions in 2020, down from 110 GW in 2019.
New PV installations are anticipated to see a partial rebound in 2021, owing to utility-scale projects that return to 2019 addition levels, while distributed PV is hit more severely and does not fully recover.
The onshore wind sector is also affected by commissioning delays in 2020, although they are mostly compensated for in 2021, as the majority of projects in the pipeline are already financed and under construction.
A key concern is that projects that have not yet reached financial closure in 2020 have a very low chance of now doing so, reducing their chance of going live in 2021.
In the US, the annual increase in solar PV capacity topped 13.2 GW in 2019, the
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