Page 7 - AfrElec Week 20

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec
second-highest recorded to date, due to the increasing economic attractiveness of both util- ity-scale projects and residential PV systems.
However, annual growth is seen slowing slightly to 12.9 GW in 2020 as the impacts of COVID-19 dampen distributed PV prospects.
In Europe, solar PV additions nearly doubled to 19 GW in 2019, compared with 10 GW in 2018. However, PV additions are set to decline in 2020 to 10.4 GW as a result of economic uncertainty, lockdown-induced construction delays and the economic impact of COVID-19 on unsubsidised projects.
In India, solar PV is a major loser, with addi- tions set to decline by 23% to 7.1 GW in 2020, while China is set for 20% solar growth, domi- nated by large utility projects.
Wind
In the wind sector, the IEA now forecasts 48 GW of onshore capacity and 5GWoffshore. This com- pares with the IEA’s October forecast of 58 GW and 5 GW respectively.
This is in the main driven by project delays rather than cancellations, pointing to a recovery in 2021.
The US wind sector is strong and resilient, the report said, with 2020 additions beating the 9.1GW reported in 2019, driven by the first pro- duction tax credit (PTC) deadline at the end of year 2020.
Underlying market fundamentals remain strong, despite the risk of delays related to COVID-19, such as construction and tendering
delays.
Europe is also expected to be resilient, despite
some project slippage into 2021.
The report also forecast that global sales of
conventional cars are set for a historic drop of 15% in 2020 on the back of the COVID-19 crisis, but sales of electric cars are on track to rise to a record 2.3mn, driven by supportive government policies.
The future
Looking ahead, the report concluded that emerging technologies such as as CCUS, hydro- gen and energy storage are all critical to meeting climate and energy goals;
Continuing cost declines will not be enough to shelter renewables from the COVID-19 storm, which has meant more doubt and less certainty for the IEA’s forecasts.
Indeed, the low level of certainty and large number of variables underlines the critical role of governments in ensuring investor confidence through well-designed stimulus packages and clear policy plans.
As a whole, renewables has proved so far to be more resilient than other fuels such as coal in the COVID-19 crisis, but they have still felt the impact and are not immune to delays and uncertainties.
The report forecasts that new additions of wind, hydro & large-scale solar power should recover in 2021, but warns that rooftop solar PV could lose momentum.™
Week 20 21•May•2020 w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m P7