Page 37 - RusRPTApr20

3.2 Macro outlook
Economists are scrambling to catch up with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on Russia’s economic outlook. As March came to an end the first round of estimates were release, most of which put Russia’s economy contracting this year by 1%-1.5%.
“However, the downside risks are extraordinarily high. We wouldn't call any of our estimates “forecasts” as that implies too much sense of certainty. Anything can happen,” Charlie Robertson, chief economist for Renaissance Capital said.
bne IntelliNews is following this story closely and regularly publishing these forecasts as they are released. The leading estimates so far are listed below:
IIF forecasts a contraction of -1.4% in CEE, -1.3% in Russia, but Turkish growth remains in the black in 2020
Fitch cuts oil price outlook for 2020 from 62.5/bbl to $41/bbl on global recession fears
Russia’s economy to contract by 1% in 2020, says BOFIT BCS: Pricing in a global recession (Russia -2.7% in 2020)
Despite the low of future economic developments, in Russia and worldwide, a recession appears inevitable in the next 1-2 quarters, at least, chief economist of BCS Global Markets Vladimir Tikhomirov argued on March 20, while revising macro projections.
BCS GM believes that the global COVID-19 epidemic will continue until 3Q20,
37 RUSSIA Country Report April 2020 www.intellinews.com