Page 39 - RusRPTApr20

position remains strong given low external debt and plentiful reserves.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has drastically cut its forecast for the Russian economy for 2020 in a bleak report warning of the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. The OECD now expects Russia’s annual GDP growth to come in at just 1.2% in 2020 — down from the 1.6% it predicted at the end of last year. The report, titled “Coronavirus: The World Economy at Risk” published Monday, comes after a historic week in the financial markets, which saw billions of dollars wiped out as stock markets tumbled. In Russia, the RTS index has dropped 21% in recent weeks, pushed lower as oil prices fell to near $50 a barrel. The ruble has also weakened by around 5% against the U.S. dollar. The 0.4 percentage point reduction in the 2020 forecast for Russia was slightly better than the world economy as a whole, as the Paris-based economists slashed their prediction for global growth this year from 2.9% to 2.4%. It now predicts China, which has seen the vast majority of coronavirus cases and deaths, will record its lowest annual expansion in three decades at 4.9%. Comparing the impact of the coronavirus with the 2003 SARS outbreak, the OECD said that “the global economy has become substantially more interconnected, and China plays a far greater role in global output, trade, tourism and commodity markets.”
4.0 Real Economy
Key macroeconomic indicators (post-coronavirus impact)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2M20 2020e
GDP -2.5 -0.2 1.6 2.3 1.3 - -2.7
Industrial output -0.8 1.3 2.1 3.5 2.3 2.2 -6.3
Retail trade -10 -4.6 1.3 2.8 1.6 3.7 -3.8
Inflation (EOP) 12.9 5.4 2.5 4.3 3 2.3 5
Real wages -9.5 0.6 2.9 6.8 2.9 6.5* -6.7
Current account, $ bn 69.6 25 35.2 114.9 70.6 16 45
Budget deficit, % of GDP -2.5 -3.4 -1.4 2.7 1.8 -1.7 -1.7
RUB/USD (avg) 61.1 67.1 58.3 62.7 64.8 62.9 73.4
RUB/USD (EOP) 72.9 60.7 57.6 69.5 61.9 67 72
Brent $ / bbl (avg) 52.4 43.6 54.3 70.8 64.4 60 39
CBR rate 11 10 7.75 7.75 6.25 6 7.5
Source: Rosstat, BCS GM
39 RUSSIA Country Report April 2020 www.intellinews.com