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AfrOil COMMENTARY AfrOil

Nightmare looming in Libya?

Europe and Nato are hoping not to see Russian and Turkish military bases pop up across the Med

WHAT’S the worst scenario that could emerge accord ignores the presence of Crete.
from conflict-torn Libya for Europe and Nato? As things stand, it appears Russia is holding
WHAT: Perhaps a divided country with permanent back from fully engaging with Turkey over a
NNPC says some Nigerian Russian and Turkish military bases staring possible ceasefire deal because of a GNA plan
operators are overstating across the Mediterranean from its east and west, to seize Sirte, about halfway between GNA-held
their expenses and respectively? Tripoli and LNA-held Benghazi, and the closest
pushing production costs Such an outcome may still sound a little city to Libya’s main energy export terminals.
as high as $93 per barrel. far-fetched, but it can’t be ruled out. June 14 “Russia wants Turkey and the GNA to halt
brought a report from Reuters that related how military operations, particularly not attacking
WHY: a Turkish source had disclosed that Turkey and Sirte, Jufra and the oil crescent—and Ankara has
These high costs are Libya’s internationally recognised Tripoli-based rebuffed this demand,” Galip Dalay, a fellow at
a drag on Nigeria’s oil Government of National Accord (GNA) were Robert Bosch Academy, told Reuters. “If Turk-
sector, which has been hit discussing possible Turkish use of two mili- ish-Russian talks don’t bear fruit, we might then
hard by recent events. tary bases in the North African country with a see escalation both in Libya and in Syria’s Idlib
view to a lasting Turkish presence in the south region [where Ankara and Moscow also back
WHAT NEXT: Mediterranean. opposing sides],” he added.
Foreign and local Meanwhile, Russia apparently flew 14
companies want NNPC MIG-29 and Su-24 fighter jets to desert sites France, Turkey in war of words
to consider their security controlled by the GNA’s adversary, the Libyan Recent days, meanwhile, have seen Turkey and
costs and introduce more National Army (LNA) under Marshal Khal- France enter into a war of words over the situa-
investor-friendly policies. ifa Haftar, last week. This event led US Africa tion in Syria.
Command (AFRICOM) to note that Russian In an interview with La Croix newspaper on
President Vladimir Putin now had access to two June 16, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le
air bases in Libya and there were fears that he Drian reiterated that Paris was not taking sides
might want to make that, and perhaps more, a in Libya, but said that Turkey endangered Euro-
permanent arrangement. The commander of pean security by sending Syrian fighters to the
AFRICOM, Gen. Stephen Townsend, said of country. “It’s a danger to ourselves, an unaccept-
the Russian move: “Just like I saw them doing able strategic risk, because it’s 200 kilometres
in Syria, they are expanding their military foot- (124 miles) from the Italian coast,” he said.
print in Africa using government-supported France has denied that it supports Haftar,
mercenary groups.” though it previously assisted him in fighting
Reportedly, no final decisions have been Islamist militants. It has also stopped short of
made over Turkish military use of the Misrata criticising countries that openly support him,
naval base and the al-Watiya air base, recently such as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates,
recaptured by the Turkish-backed GNA. while it has repeatedly criticised Turkey’s stance.
Insisting Paris has swung behind Haftar, Tur-
Boosting oil, gas claims key on June 16 angrily accused France of exacer-
A more permanent air and naval presence in bating the crisis in Libya and violating UN and
Libya could reinforce Turkey’s growing influ- Nato decisions by supporting his forces against
ence in the region. That might help boost its the internationally recognised GNA.
claims to offshore oil and gas resources and France has called for talks among Nato
pave the way for billions of dollars in contract- allies on what it said was Turkey’s increasingly
ing work, such as energy and construction deals, “aggressive” role in Libya and breaching of a UN
once the fighting ends. If there is one thing Tur- arms embargo in arming the GNA, prompting
key’s Erdogan administration needs right now, Turkey’s foreign ministry to respond angrily.
it is more revenues to help stave off a calamitous “The support France has provided to the putsch-
economic crisis. ist and pirate Haftar... has exacerbated the crisis
“Turkey using al-Watiya ... is on the agenda,” in Libya,” it said in a statement.
added the \\ source. “It could also be possible for “What should actually be a cause for con-
the Misrata naval base to be used by Turkey.” cern are France’s dark ties. It is unacceptable for
Ankara threw its support behind the govern- a Nato ally to behave this way,” it added.
ment in Tripoli last year after the GNA signed a Ankara has sent military advisers and train-
maritime demarcation accord that it says pro- ers (and allied Syrian militia fighters) to Libya to
vides Turkish drilling rights near Crete. But it is support the GNA. Russia appears to have sent
opposed by Greece, Cyprus, Israel and the Euro- Syrian adversaries of the militia fighters to fight
pean Union, with Athens complaining that the for the LNA in the conflict. ™

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