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new scheme for pension payments from July 2018 and to lower taxes on modest wages from January 2019, the ADB added. “As these initiatives target lower-income citizens, they are expected to stimulate future growth in private consumption.”
Among other countries in the region, Georgia recorded higher than expected growth in early 2018 thanks to contributions from tourism, exports and capital investment, the bank said.
Armenian growth accelerated further in the first quarter of 2018 due to strong domestic and external demand after experiencing a sharp rebound last year from nearly no growth in 2016, it maintained.
Growth in Azerbaijan saw an ongoing recovery in the first five months of 2018. It is expected to pick up further given the recent launch of the Shah Deniz II gas field in the Caspian Sea, from which gas will be sent by pipeline to Turkey and, eventually, Europe.
Rising oil prices and gas exports helped Turkmenistan’s “PRC supported growth in the first half of 2018, though the pace may moderate under curtailed public investment later this year”, the outlook projected.
The report also sees Uzbekistan’s growth slightly outpacing the 4.0% and 4.2% forecast in ADO 2018 to reach 4.2% in 2018 and 4.3% in 2019 as its economy grew robustly in the first quarter of 2018 driven by exports and investments that partly offset weaker consumption.
“Kyrgyzstan recorded modest growth in the first 5 months of 2018, most prominently caused by in lower output from the large Kumtor gold mine,” the bank said, referring to the major slowdown experienced in the tiny Central Asian nation.
“Tajikistan recorded robust growth in Q1 of 2018, and this trend is likely to continue against a background of recovery in the Russian Federation and improved ties with Uzbekistan, both key trading partners.
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Industrial production rises 13.5% y/y in 1Q18
Georgia’s industrial production increased 13.5% in the first quarter of 2018, easing from a 20.6% growth in the previous period, according to the National Statistics Office of Georgia.
Production increased at a slower pace for manufacturing (16.7% in 1Q18 from 24.8% in 4Q17); mining and quarrying (12.9% in 1Q18 from 29.1% in 4Q) and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (7.5% in 1Q18 from 9.8% in 4Q). Meanwhile, production increased faster for water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (14.9% in 1Q18 from 4% in 4Q).
Industrial production y/y in Georgia averaged 13.2% from 2000 to 2017.
12 GEORGIA Country Report September 2018 www.intellinews.com