Page 18 - UKRRptNov20

4.0​ Real Economy 4.1​ Industrial production
Ukraine's industrial output dropped 4.4% y/y in September​, slowing down from a 5.3% y/y decline in August, the State Statistics Service reported on October 22. Seasonally adjusted output slid 1.1% m/m in September.
In 9M20, industrial output dropped 7.0% y/y.
Manufacturing output fell 5.8% y/y in September (after a 7.7% y/y decline in August). In particular, the decline in metallurgy slowed to 7.6% y/y (vs. 10.4% y/y in August), while machinery output dropped 9.1% y/y (vs. 22.8% y/y in August). Chemical production grew 5.8% y/y (vs. 0.6% y/y growth in August).
Meanwhile, the decline in food production deepened to 8.7% y/y (vs. a 0.4% decline in August), while production of pharmaceuticals dropped 4.8% y/y (vs. a 14.1% y/y surge in August).
The decline in mining deepened to 2.8% y/y (vs. a 0.1% y/y slide in August). In particular, iron ore production dropped 8.4% y/y, coal production fell 5.6% y/y and oil & gas production slid 0.6% y/y. The supply of electricity & natural gas slid 0.2% y/y after a 4.6% y/y decline in August.
Regionally, the steepest declines were observed in the Ternopil (-29.5% y/y), Kirovohrad (-21.8% y/y) and Dnipropetrovsk (-14.7% y/y) regions. Industrial output grew the most in the Zakarpattia (10.6% y/y), Rivne (9.4% y/y) and Lviv (5.6% y/y) regions.
“The fall in industrial output slowed down in September mostly because of a slower drop in metallurgy and machinery. Meanwhile, no sector demonstrated consistent improvement in recent months. In particular, the slower decline in manufacturing in September was offset by a deepened mining fall,” Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note. “We expect industrial output to drop 6.0% y/y in 2020 (vs. a 0.5% y/y decline in 2019).”
18​ UKRAINE Country Report​ November 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com