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Opinion
November 24, 2017 www.intellinews.com I Page 23
Though banned from – and ridiculed by – Putin- controlled state television, the main source
of information for the majority of Russians, Navalny has been able to address his followers through a Youtube channel watched by millions. The platform has helped him to build up a nationwide network of regional headquarters and tens of thousands of volunteers. His anti- Putin rallies, many unsanctioned, continue to attract supporters despite heavy-handed police tactics. But recently the number attending the demonstrations has declined.
There are growing concerns amongst Navalny supporters over the direction and ultimate goal of his campaigning. Barred from elections and embroiled in a seemingly perpetual conflict with the state, some are beginning to wonder whether he has a strategy beyond endless protest. He struck a chord with millions of young Russians when he first emerged, yet the vast majority of voters still know little about him or, under the influence of state propaganda, view him as a Western agent intent on destabilising the country.
Now some followers are raising questions about the value of the continuous cycle of protests and arrests. The novelty of it all, it seems, is beginning to lose its appeal. Navalny loyalists have displayed great courage in turning up for unsanctioned ral- lies in the knowledge that they risk being bundled into police squad cars. However, they need to see that there is a purpose behind such sacrifices. At the moment, there does not appear to be one.
In advance of the presidential elections, Sobchak is unlikely to criticise Navalny or exploit regime
slurs, as they have long been friends and allies. She has in the past shared platforms with him and campaigned for his release from jail. Sobchak insists that she only decided to become a candidate because Navalny is not allowed to take part, having earlier suggested that his wife, Yulia Navalnaya, could run instead of him.
Yet, conveniently for the Kremlin, there is a strong possibility that Sobchak will draw away at
least some of Navalny’s supporters: those
losing faith in him and others preferring a less confrontational approach towards the authorities. It will help Sobchak that she has much higher name recognition than Navalny, and her candidacy has already been the subject of discussion on popular late night TV talk shows.
Her campaign theme is also compelling. As the “protest candidate”, she argues that a vote for her is a “vote against everyone”. In effect, Sobchak
is inviting those sceptical of the fairness of elections in their country to back her, in order to demonstrate the extent of anti-Putin sentiment – something that might appeal to many Russians. That all bodes well for Sobchak’s campaign, and if she were to secure a significant proportion of the vote – say 15 per cent – she could supplant Navalny as the effective leader of the opposition.
Yigal Chazan is an Associate and Nicolae Reutoi
a Senior Analyst at Alaco. Alaco Dispatches is the business intelligence consultancy’s take on events and developments shaping the CIS region.