Page 4 - AsiaElec Week 02 2022

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec

NDCs need to be rapidly

improved to get near 1.5°C target

GLOBAL CURRENT Nationally Determined Contri- From these targets, 109 focus on power and
butions (NDCs) are nowhere near enough to 30 explicitly mention heating and cooling or
keep global warming within the 1.5°C target, transport. Only 13 parties have committed to a
the International Renewable Energy Agency percentage of renewables in their overall energy
(IRENA) said in a new report. mixes.
NDCs as they stand would limit global Meanwhile, the report found that G20 mem-
warming by 1.8°C by 2050 and 2.1°C by 2100, bers accounted for roughly 75% of global GHG
the report found, indicating that current com- emissions.
mitments to reduce emissions by 2030 are not A total of 19 G20 members have submitted
enough to meet the 1.5°C target. new or updated NDCs, out of which only 11
A total of 144 NDCs out of the 182 submitted have submitted an NDC with pledges that are
include quantified renewable energy targets and stronger than their previous NDC.
only 30 explicitly mention heating, cooling or Around 32 Least Developed Countries
transport. (LDCs) and 27 Small Island Development States
However, the 2.1°C forecast is lower than the (SIDS), representing a total of 55 parties, have
previous figure of 2.8°C, which earlier NDCs had submitted new, updated or second NDCs since
suggested. September 2020, of which more than 35 parties
The warming came from the International have submitted stronger pledges. About 44 par-
Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in a new ties have included renewable energy targets.
report that looks at governments’ current climate However, while all this progress is welcome,
pledges. the report warned that in 178 countries, a mis-
“The fact that three quarters of the global match exists between renewable energy targets
emissions are now covered by net-zero ambi- in the NDCs and those featuring in national
tions demonstrates the extent to which Glasgow laws and official strategies and plans, suggesting
realigned the world’s perspectives on what is that continued improvements to both the NDCs
possible and narrowed the gap with what is nec- submitted to the UNFCCC and to government
essary,” said IRENA director-general Francesco policies and laws are needed if the progress made
La Camera. at COP26 to be built on and promises kept.
In terms of renewable energy capacity,
Details IRENA forecast in its World Energy Transitions
The report highlighted that 193 countries had to Outlook in 2021 that global renewable energy
date ratified the Paris Agreement (up from 190 in capacity should reach 10,700 GW by 2030, four
2020) and that 194 parties have now submitted times the current figure. In 2021, 260 GW of
an NDC. renewable capacity was installed, IRENA said,
Together with the new and updated NDCs, close to 50% more than the previous year.
current and announced net-zero pledges are However, IRENA warned in no uncertain
projected to further reduce emissions by approx- terms that the renewable energy commit-
imately 20% by 2030 compared to the business as ments in current NDCs are nowhere near those
usual before the first NDCs, with the potential to required to meet the 1.5°C target for 2100, or the
limit warming to 2.1°C. However, this is still well 2050 net-zero target.
above the 1.5 °C goal. IRENA’s finding that only 30 NDCs explicitly
Meanwhile, another positive trend is that mention heating and cooling or transport, and
more than 100 countries are promising to cut only 13 parties have committed to a percentage
emissions of methane by 30% by 2030. These of renewables in their overall energy mixes, is
pledges, combined with the NDCs and net-zero wholly inadequate.
targets, have been found by the International This compares with 109 parties that have
Energy Agency (IEA) to be sufficient to hold the stated defined targets for renewables, whether in
rise in global temperatures to 1.8°C by the end terms of capacity (GW) or output (GWh).
of the century. IRENA said that such targets failed to take
As of 15 November, 2021, which means just into account a country’s wider power sector,
after the COP26 conference in Glasgow, 182 par- and could hide a failure to commit to reducing
ties had included renewable energy components fossil fuels’ importance in a country. This lack
in their NDCs, of which only 144 had a quanti- of clarity means that governments are not being
fied target. ambitious enough in setting out how they will

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