Page 66 - bne magazine February 2022_20220208

66 I Central Europe bne February 2022
The wiiw says high inflation is the biggest risk to economic recovery in the CESEE region.
wiiw slashes Emerging Europe growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023
bne IntelliNews
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has hiked its 2021
CEE growth forecast but lowered its predictions for 2022 and 2023 as the region’s economies slow down amid the withdrawal of coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic aid.
In its winter forecast released on January 26, the wiiw raised its 2021 forecast of average growth in the region from the 5.4% forecast in October to 5.7%, but has lowered this year’s forecasts from 3.7% to 3.2%. The 2023 forecast has been cut to 3.0 from 3.5%, while the wiiw predicts 3.1% growth in 2024. The institute names inflation, the Ukraine crisis and COVID-19 as posing downside risks.
www.bne.eu
The Vienna Institute explained
the expected 2.5 percentage point slowdown in growth this year on the performance of the region’s biggest economies, Russia and Turkey. Turkish growth is anticipated to slow to 3.5% this year, from a forecast 9.5% in 2021, as the country’s economic boom collapses, bringing with it a sharp depreciation in the lira and soaring inflation.
For Russia, GDP growth is forecast to slow to 2% this year from 4.5% last
year, and to decline further to 1.5% in 2023, all on the assumption that tougher sanctions will be imposed over the Kremlin’s sabre-rattling in the crisis over Ukraine.
The wiiw noted, however, that Russia’s resilience to sanctions had improved. “The scope for forcing Russia to change its
“For Russia, GDP growth is forecast to slow to 2% this year from 4.5% last year, and to decline further to 1.5% in 2023"