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AfrElec                                       COMMENTARY                                              AfrElec












































                         fuel-burning infrastructure must be retired early  measures and to promote renewable energy
                         to stay below 1.5°C.                 sources.”
                           This new study finds that emissions ‘lock-in’   The study notes that, by ceasing to issue new
                         from existing investments in fossil fuel extrac-  licences or permits for fossil fuel exploration
                         tion may be even larger, warranting equivalent  or extraction, governments could both avoid
                         policy attention. At the COP26 climate summit  further entrenching legal and political barriers
                         in Glasgow, several governments launched a  to mitigation policies and minimise stranded
                         Beyond Oil & Gas Alliance, committing to end  assets.
                         new licensing for oil and gas exploration and   “Each new coal mine, gas well or oil field that
                         production – one of the necessary policy steps  is developed deepens political entanglement
                         identified in the study.             with the fossil fuel industry. Increasing the scale
                           “Our study reinforces that building new fos-  of extraction-related jobs and investments only
                         sil fuel infrastructure is not a viable response to  makes it harder for governments to manage,”
                         Russia’s war on Ukraine,” said co-lead author  said co-author Thijs Van de Graaf from Ghent
                         Kelly Trout of Oil Change International. “The  University.
                         world has already tapped too much oil, gas, and   “Our research should also be a warning sign
                         coal. Developing more would either cause more  for publicly listed companies and their investors
                         dangerous levels of warming, if fully extracted,  that reserves that are on the books to be devel-
                         or create a larger scale of stranded assets.”  oped cannot be developed to stay below 1.5°C.
                           The study finds that Russia, with its large  Fossil fuel companies that claim to be aligned
                         developed reserves of oil, gas and coal, accounts  with the Paris Agreement and that need to tran-
                         for 13% of the global total.         sition their core businesses, need to accelerate
                           Almost 90% of developed fossil fuel reserves  their transition plans,” said co-author Dimitri
                         are located in just 20 countries, led by China,  Lafleur of Global Climate Insights.
                         Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United States, followed   The study does not attempt to answer the
                         by Iran, India, Indonesia, Australia, Canada, and  question of which developed coal, oil, and gas
                         Iraq.                                reserves should be decommissioned and which
                           “As governments work to reduce their  ‘fit’ within the 1.5°C carbon budget, noting that
                         dependence on Russian oil, gas and coal in  this requires grappling with questions of equity
                         response to the current crisis, they must rec-  between and within countries. A recent paper
                         ognize that developing new reserves elsewhere  by researchers at the Tyndall Centre for Climate
                         takes years and will not make up for short-term  Change Research found that the wealthiest, most
                         scarcity,” said co-author Roman Medelevitch of  economically diversified countries should phase
                         the Ӧko-Institut. “Where possible, governments  out their oil and gas production by 2034 to facil-
                         should rather take advantage of scarcity price  itate an equitable global transition within the
                         signals to push for sufficiency and efficiency  1.5-degree limit.™



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