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sector’s fuel mix will fall from 90% in 2018 to and solar respectively by 2050 under the rapid
around 80% by 2050 under the business-as- scenario, and by 35% and 70% respectively in the
usual case, only 40% in the rapid one and just net-zero scenario.
20% under net-zero assumptions. Electrification will also increase in all three
The outlook for gas is markedly better, how- scenarios, with the share of electricity in the final
ever, supported “by broad-based demand and energy mix rising from 20% in 2018 to 34% for
the increasing availability of global supplies,” BP business-as-usual, 45% for rapid and over 50%
said. for net zero.
Under the business-as-usual case, BP pre- Hydrogen and bioenergy are pitched as
dicts it to surge by a third over the next three another way of decarbonising energy. Hydrogen
decades, from 3.93 trillion cubic metres last year, will increase its share to 16% under the net zero
according to BP’s own estimates. Under the rapid and 7% under the rapid case, whereas bioenergy
scenario, demand will peak in the mid-2030s will grow to 10% of primary energy in the net
but will still be around the same level in 2050 zero case and 7% in the rapid one.
as in 2018. But according to the net-zero case,
demand will peak as soon as the mid-2020s and Commitments
drop by a third by 2050. With new CEO Bernard Looney at the helm,
Gas has two main roles in the energy tran- BP has embraced the energy transition, more so
sition, BP said. First, it can displace coal in than any of the world’s other leading oil and gas
fast-growing, developing economies where companies. This was demonstrated in BP’s net-
renewables cannot be deployed fast enough; zero strategy unveiled last month.
second, it can be combined with carbon, capture The strategy called for a 40% reduction in the
and storage (CCS) to produce near zero-carbon company’s oil and gas production over the next
energy. The rapid and net-zero scenarios see gas decade, and a similar scaling back of its refining
combined with CCS accounting between 8 and operations. It also aims to bolster annual invest-
10% of primary energy in three decades’ time. ments in clean energy tenfold by 2030.
“The world is on an unsustainable path: the
Clean tech scenarios show that achieving a rapid and sus-
Unsurprisingly, BP sees renewables on the fast- tained fall in carbon emissions is likely to require
est-growing trajectory, led by rising wind and a series of policy measures, led by a significant
solar capacity. The share of renewables in final increase in carbon prices,” BP concluded. “These
energy consumption is seen expanding from a policies may need to be further reinforced by
little over 20% in 2018 to 34% in the business-as- shifts in societal behaviours and preferences.”
usual case, 45% in the rapid case and over 50% Delaying either policies or societal shifts will
in the net zero case. only make the challenge greater and add to the
Growth will be driven by falling costs, which economic cost and disruption, the company
are expected to be 30% and 65% lower for wind warned.™

Week 37 17•September•2020 www. NEWSBASE .com P5