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rebound in Russia's net exports in 4Q20 (thanks to metals and other non-energy commodities),” Sova Capital said in a note.
“In 2021, we expect GDP to grow 2.5% y/y vs. Bloomberg consensus of 3% y/y. The base effects of a less severe decline in 2020, combined with an aggressive fiscal consolidation and additional waves of COVID-19 if herd immunity is not reached due to the slow pace of vaccinations, could lead to downside risks to our 2021 GDP forecast. We expect the economy to return to positive y/y growth rates starting in 2Q21. The upsides to our forecast could arise from additional public outlays on households and businesses, as well as via NWF funds that are above the threshold (7% of GDP). In March, President Putin requested the facilitation of the process, and 0.5% of GDP could be invested in infrastructure already this year, in our view, with another 2% of GDP available next year, on our estimates,” Sova Capita added.
41 RUSSIA Country Report May 2021 www.intellinews.com