Page 42 - RusRPTMay21

3.2 Macro outlook
The CBR kept its forecast for Russia's GDP growth unchanged at the April policy meeting. It forecasts economic growth of 3–4% this year, 2.5–3.5% in 2022 and 2–3% in 2023. The novelty of the economic forecast was the central bank's assessment of future key interest rate developments over the forecast period. It believes that the annual average key interest rate will be 4.8–5.4% this year, 5.3–6.3% in 2022 and 5–6% in 2023. In its guidelines after the April meeting, the central bank considered it possible to raise the key interest rate at subsequent interest rate meetings.
The World Bank has upgraded its outlook on Russia’s GDP growth in 2021 to 2.9% compared with its December forecast of 2.6%, and in 2022 - to 3.2% from 3% due to a lower than expected GDP contraction in 2020 and quick easing of COVID-19-related restrictions, according to a report.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its forecast for economic growth in Russia for the second time this year, and now expects GDP to gain as much as 3.8% in 2021, RT informed.
In its April report, the IMF raised its projections for Russia’s GDP by 0.8% compared to its January outlook, and by 1.5% compared to its October forecast.
While the outlook for Russia’s economic performance in 2021 has been raised for the second time, next year’s growth could be slightly slower than previously thought. The IMF expects Russia’s GDP to grow at the same pace as this year in 2022, by 3.8%, which is 0.1% lower than it predicted in January.
42 RUSSIA Country Report May 2021 www.intellinews.com