Page 45 - RusRPTMay21

A change in the base factor will lead to considerable improvements in the y/y dynamic in industry in April, as well as in the economy at large, chief economist of BCS GM Vladimir Tikhomirov argues.
BCS GM expects positive trends to continue in the following months as well, although anticipating a gradual moderation in growth rates during 2H21. The analysts reiterate the forecast for industrial production growth in 2021 at 5.9% y/y (in 1Q21, industry was still in decline at -1.3% y/y).
Analysts at Sberbank CIB also expect to see industrial production grow in y/y terms in the upcoming months due to the low base effect caused by the pandemic. Sberbank CIB's forecast is for industrial growth for the year to come in at 4%.
4.2 Inflation
The central bank estimates that consumer prices will rise in the second quarter at the same pace as in the first quarter. In the second half of the year, it expects consumer price inflation to slow. It forecasts annual inflation at 4.7–5.2% (previously 3.7–4.2%) at the end of the year. It expects to reach the inflation target (4%) in mid-2022 (previously in the first half of 2022). After that, it believes annual inflation will remain close to the inflation target.
45 RUSSIA Country Report May 2021 www.intellinews.com