Page 4 - GLNG Week 18 2021

GLNG COMMENTARY GLNG

Wider implications of unrest

in northern Mozambique

Amid doubts about an SADC plan to send troops to Cabo Delgado,

Mozambican authorities should consider working with Tanzania to

contain Islamist militants

POLICY UNREST in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique’s regional multi-lateral group, to consider inter-
northernmost province, has already had a sig- vening in Mozambique.
WHAT: nificant economic impact. Last week, security officials from SADC’s
ASWJ attacks have Attacks perpetrated by Ahlu Sunnah member states gathered in Maputo, the cap-
already disrupted Wa-Jamo (ASWJ), an Islamist militant group, ital of Mozambique, to discuss the situation
Mozambique’s economic recently led France’s Total to declare force in Cabo Delgado. At that meeting, delegates
prospects. majeure on Mozambique LNG, a $20bn from Angola, Botswana, South Africa, Malawi,
scheme that calls for the development of Area Tanzania and Zimbabwe called for sending a
WHY: 1, a huge offshore natural gas field, and the con- regional African force consisting of nearly 3,000
Concerns about a struction of an onshore gas liquefaction plant. troops to northern Mozambique.
spillover of the conflict This declaration is anticipated to set work The proposal drew sufficient support for it
have led SADC to on the project back by at least a year, so it is to be slated for presentation to SADC’s heads
contemplate a multi- bad news for the service companies that were of state during a summit scheduled for the first
lateral military initiative. counting on working for Total as contractors or week of May. It also won applause from NJ Ayuk,
sub-contractors. the executive chairman of the African Energy
WHAT NEXT: The suspension of work on Mozambique Chamber. Ayuk told the Journal of Petroleum
If reports of Nyusi’s LNG also has the potential to disrupt other Technology last week that he believed SADC’s
preference for large-scale gas projects. ExxonMobil (US), the plan would help curb conflict in Cabo Delgado
bilateral deals prove operator of the Rovuma LNG project, is also relatively quickly. The group’s military force
true, Tanzania could planning to build an onshore complex to pro- should be able to obtain results quickly enough,
be a useful ally for cess gas from its offshore site, known as Area 4. he said, to allow Total to resume work in “less
Mozambique. It postponed its final investment decision (FID) than 12 months,” he commented.
on the Rovuma LNG project in 2020, citing
concerns about low global energy prices and Doubts about Maputo
the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pan- However, this optimistic take appears to have The suspension
demic, and it could delay further (or abandon been premature. SADC has not formally
the $30bn plan altogether) if northern Mozam- adopted the plan, as its summit has been post- of work on
bique remains in turmoil. poned indefinitely. Mozambique
The ostensible reason for the delay is that only
Multi-lateral action one of the group’s three-member security team LNG also has
But the problems in Cabo Delgado are not would be able to attend the meeting in Maputo
just economic. They are also worrying from a this week. Some observers believe, though, that the potential to
humanitarian perspective. ASWJ’s bid to gain SADC’s plans are being derailed not by unex-
control of northern Mozambique has led hun- pected logistical complications but by deliberate disrupt other
dreds of thousands of people to flee Cabo Del- interference from Mozambique’s government. large-scale gas
gado, and the number of refugees may soon As evidence, they have cited Mozambican
reach 1mn. Meanwhile, most of the displaced President Filipe Nyusi’s past assertions that his projects.
are living in very poor conditions, with few pros- government did not want or need foreign assis-
pects for improvement in the near term. tance to address problems in Cabo Delgado.
The refugee crisis has also sparked politi- They have also pointed to security sources’
cal concerns, as it has raised the prospect that reports that the Mozambican leader sees bilat-
ASWJ attacks could lead residents of Cabo Del- eral deals, such as the agreement his administra-
gado to flee to neighbouring countries, such as tion recently struck with Portugal for assistance
Zimbabwe or Zambia. These worries may have with military training, as preferable to multi-lat-
been one of the factors that convinced the South eral initiatives such as the troop deployment
African Development Community (SADC), a that SADC is contemplating.

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 18 07•May•2021