Page 6 - AsianOil Week 29

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Indian oil production, imports drop in June
PERFORMANCE
INDIA saw both production and imports of crude oil decline in June owing to maturing production and refinery maintenance pro- grammes respectively.
Oil output shrank 6.8% year on year to 2.69mn tonnes (657,000 barrels per day) in June, provisional Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas data showed on July 22. Crude and con- densate production has been in steady decline since nancial year 2011-12, when output aver- aged 765,000 bpd, according to data from the ministry’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC). Output in financial year 2018-2019 averaged 687,000 bpd.
Imports, meanwhile, declined 13.4% on the year to 16.87mn tonnes (4.12mn bpd), accord- ing to government data released on July 23.
June’s decline came a er the US stepped up pressure on Iran by allowing six-month waivers to sanctions on the Middle Eastern country’s oil exports to expire on May 2. Indian Minis- ter of Petroleum and Natural Gas Dharmendra Pradhan, however, said on July 16 that there was enough oil in the international market to o set lost access to Iranian oil.
With both production and imports slipping in June, the country’s re neries processed 7.1% less oil year on year, with run rates amounting to 20.30mn tonnes (4.96mn bpd) – their lowest level since February.
Key refineries such as Reliance Industries Ltd’s (RIL) 330,000 bpd Jamnagar re nery and Indian Oil Corp.’s (IOC) 120,000 bpd Barauni re nery were shut for maintenance.
Natural gas production, meanwhile, edged down 1.6% year on year in June to 2.64bn cubic metres.
While production is likely to continue declin- ing, owing to a lack of major new discoveries, imports are anticipated to rebound strongly in both the short and long term.
Pradhan told the Council on Energy, Envi- ronment and Water Energy Horizons 2019 that India would need to nearly double its down- stream capacity to meet an anticipated surge in fuel demand over the coming years. Pradhan said: “In India, we have current domestic re ning capacity of 250mn tpy [5mn bpd]. Recent stud- ies have pointed out that even with an aggressive [electric vehicle] EV roll-out plan, India would need 450mn tpy [9mn bpd] of re ning capacity.”
He added that Indian energy consumption would grow by 4.2% per year up to 2035.
He said: “While India’s energy demand increased to 754 million tonnes of oil equivalent [15.14mn boepd] in 2017, the per capita consump- tion of energy is still much lower than the world average. India’s share of total global primary energy demand is set to roughly double to about 11% by 2040, driven by strong economic development.”v
250 230 210 190 170 150 130 110
90 70 50 30 10
2010-11 2011-12
2012-13 2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
Oil product consumption
2016-17
2017-18
Supply and Demand
v
2018-19
Data: PPAC
Crude/condensate production
HPCL predicts downward oil price pressure
PERFORMANCE
STATE-RUN Indian refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) anticipates international oil prices will remain within the $60-70 per barrel range despite mounting tensions in the Middle East.
The company’s chairman and managing director, Mukesh Kumar Surana, said on July 22
that the US-China trade war, coupled with grow- ing US crude exports, would help to keep a lid on prices and could even lead to oil falling toward $60 if demand were to weaken. Brent has been trading in the $60-65 per barrel range for the past three months.
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 29 24•July•2019
million tpy