Page 18 - TURKRptMay21

Nevertheless, the foreign-investor share in the Turkish stock market keeps testing historical lows. It is in the 42%s based on market value and the 28%s based on the number of shares. How low the share can go remains a question.
Non-residents’ domestic Turkish government bonds stock saw a record low of $4.96bn as of November 6, just before Agbal took up the central bank job. Perhaps, we should expect at least a few billions more in outflows from the $7.37bn of stock seen as of April 2.
Domestic corporate bonds are negligible while Turkish banks’ swap stock with foreigners might be expected to fall in the days ahead from the $16bn stock recorded as of April 2.
In regard to the $80bn of nominal eurobond stock, there are some upcoming scheduled redemptions.
In Q1, property sales to foreigners amounted to 9,900 units, representing a 9.7% y/y decline.
Portfolio Flows to Turkey
Borsa Istanbul
Domestic government
Domestic private
Government eurobond
Corporate eurobond
USDmn
Stocks
Bond
Bond
Swaps
(nominal)
(nominal)
Total
Nov-2020
1,214
612
9
6,899
131
-62
8,804
Dec-2020
334
1,994
-6
4,052
2,210
937
9,521
Jan-2021
-292
926
14
3,638
3,374
890
8,549
Feb-2021
-486
546
29
-481
-36
-135
-563
end-Feb to Mar 19
-67
351
15
1,191
-1,872
-333
-715
Agbal (from end-Oct to Mar 19)
702
4,429
61
15,299
3,808
1,298
25,596
Mar 26, 2021
-814
-1,105
-17
-6,622
-699
-186
-9,443
Apr 2, 2021
-364
-140
-4
-1,022
-826
164
-2,193
Apr 9, 2021
-46
78
3
280
-170
-57
88
Apr 16, 2021
0
165
18
-98
-93
153
145
Post-Agbal (since Mar 19)
-1,224
-1,002
1
-7,462
-1,787
73
-11,402
Since end-Oct
-522
3,426
61
7,837
2,020
1,372
14,194
Turkish papers and swaps stock held by foreigners
Apr 2, 2021
23,406
7,370
261
16,311
42,192
38,080
127,621
Apr 9, 2021
22,776
7,464
265
16,591
42,022
38,072
127,191
Apr 16, 2021
23,177
7,787
283
16,493
41,930
38,225
127,893
Upcoming eurobond redemptions by major Turkish issuers
Issuer
ISIN
Coupon
Volume (mn)
Issuance
Maturity
Garanti
USM8931TAA71
6.250%
$500
Apr 20, 2021
Ziraat
XS1223394914
4.750%
$500
Apr, 2016
Apr 29, 2021
Vakifbank
XS1403416222
2.375%
€500
May 4, 2021
TSKB
XS1412393172
4.875%
$300
May 18, 2016
May 18, 2021
Treasury
XS1303467077
4.251%
$1,000
Jun 1, 2016
Jun 8, 2021
Isbank
XS1079527211
5.000%
$750
Jun 25, 2014
Jun 25, 2021
Halkbank
XS1439838548
5.000%
$500
Jul 13, 2021
18 TURKEY Country Report May 2021 www.intellinews.com