Page 4 - AfrElec Week 12

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec
China props up global coal power industry in 2019
Coal power development fell sharply for the fourth year in a row in 2019, with African coal facing severe problems, writes Richard Lockhart
GLOBAL
WHAT:
Coal development declined in 2019, although China drove a 34.1GW rise in net capacity
WHY:
Additions in China accelerated, although much is emergency capacity and operating rates are at record lows
WHAT NEXT:
Coal needs to be put on hold if the world is to meet climate change targets.
THERE was a 16% year-on-year drop in coal power construction in 2019, the fourth year in a row, according to data from Global Energy Mon- itor (GEM), although China drove a 34.1-GW net increase in operating capacity.
The figures were contained in the recently published Boom and Bust 2020 report from GEM, Greenpeace International, the Sierra Club and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Meanwhile, power generation from coal contracted by a global average of 3%, with the strongest declines in the EU (–24%) and the US (–16%). As a result, global average utilisation of coal power plants fell to a record low of 51%.
“Global power generation from coal fell by a record amount in 2019, as renewable energy grew and power demand slowed down,” said Christine Shearer, lead author and Director of GEM’s Coal Programme.
“Regardless, the number of new plants added to the grid accelerated, meaning that the world’s coal plants were operated a lot less – more plants generating less power. For banks and investors that continue to underwrite new coal plants, this means weakened profitability and increased risk.”
As development rates declined, the operat- ing coal fleet grew by 34.1 GW in 2019, the first increase in net capacity additions since 2015.
The driver of this expansion was China, which could boast nearly two-thirds (43.8 GW) of the 68.3 GW of newly commissioned capacity.
Outside China, the global coal fleet shrank for the second year in a row, as other countries together retired more coal power capacity (27.2 GW) than was commissioned (24.5 GW).
have indefinitely suspended $1.1bn in financial support for the Hwange expansion, putting its future into question.
Since 2000, Africa and the Middle East have commissioned 11.8 GW of coal, with over half (6.2 GW) in South Africa and a quarter (3.1 GW) in Morocco.
On the other hand, South Africa’s Eskom retired 0.6 GW of coal power in 2019, as many of its older coal plants exceed air pollution limits.
For capacity in pre-construction develop- ment, capacity in Africa and the Middle East fellby40%from54GWin2018to33.2GWin 2019, as 18 GW of coal projects were shelved or cancelled.
Half of the capacity under development, either at the construction or pre-construction stage, is in South Africa and Egypt, where the government has been planning new coal plants since overturning a ban on thermal coal imports in 2015.
The operating coal fleet grew by 34.1GW in 2019,
Africa
Meanwhile, the report found that Africa and the Middle East regions had also seen a rapid decline in new coal, and mostly concentrated in the lead- ing industrial hubs of Egypt and South Africa.
Since 2015, there have been only 3.1 GW of construction starts in Africa and the Middle East, with none of that in 2019.
Zimbabwe started construction of the 0.7- GW expansion at the Hwange coal plant in 2018, but this has faced problems, as Chinese banks
South Africa now has 11.1 GW under devel-
opment, with 4.8 GW at Kusile and 4.8 GW at
Medupi despite ongoing financial and techni-
cal difficulties at both plants. Medupi commis- the first increase sioned 1.6 GW in 2019.
Egypt has 6.6 GW under development at Hamarawein, although it has shelved plans for 2.6 GW at Ayoun Moussaand and 4 GW at Marsa Matruh.
Put simply, coal as a generating fuel now only has any political support in South Africa and Egypt, and even there projects are being shelved and powerful renewables and gas lobbies are diminishing coal’s role.
China
In China, the amount of new coal power capacity added to the grid increased in 2019, even as the utilisation of coal plants fell further, indicating worsening overcapacity.
China accounted for two-thirds of the 68.3 GW of newly commissioned capacity in 2019.
Previously shelved coal power projects were re-activated as controls on overcapacity were loosened further.
“The coal power lobby in China is pushing for hundreds of new coal-fired power plants by
in net capacity additions since 2015
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 12 26•March•2020