Page 5 - AfrElec Week 12

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec
2030, starkly at odds with China’s pledge to be a contributor in the fight against climate change,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
“As policymakers look for ways to stimulate the economy after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, a wave of new coal plants would be the worst kind of waste,” she added.
The report highlighted that the Chinese gov- ernment had already relegated 40% of the coal power commissioned in 2019 to emergency back-up status, limiting the operating hours of these plants.
Elsewhere, Japan is the most notably indus- trialised economy, with 11.9 GW of coal capacity under development. Furthermore, the country is financially supporting 24.7 GW of coal develop- ment abroad.
For the OECD as a whole, there has been a net decline of 68.2 GW of coal capacity since 2000, as the US and the EU push coal retirements for- ward. The US closed 16.5 GW in 2019.
Looking ahead
China’s domination of the coal market does not mean only bad news for the fight against climate change. Beijing is also committed to expanding renewables, and the falling price of solar and wind will make coal a poor investment.
“Both China’s climate pledges and the increasing competitiveness of clean energy tech- nologies mean that clean energy installations
will accelerate, leaving no space for coal-fired generation to grow,” said Myllyvirta.
Nevertheless, the report noted that the Chi- nese power industry is advocating for a capac- ity target in the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan that would make room for the addition of up to 200 new coal-fired power units by 2025 — a net increase of 150 GW on current levels.
This could spell doom for the global need for coal use to fall by 80% by 2030 if the world is to meet the IPCC’s target of limited global warming to 1.5 degrees. The UN has called for a morato- rium on new coal plant proposals by the end of 2020.
In Africa, coal is concentrated in Egypt and South Africa, with Eskom’s flagship and floun- dering Medupi and Kusile coal projects illustrat- ing coal’s problems.
With the government in the process of ten- dering private IPP projects, most of which will be renewables, and widespread disagreement over how to reform Eskom, coal’s future in South Africa will rest on politics.
The ANC government could take the deci- sion push forward Medupi and Kusile, but there is a considerable green lobby that could slow down any coal development in the country.
Yet in China and other Asian countries such as Japan, Indonesia and India, the repot con- cluded that politics seems to be favouring coal, even as demand for electricity is falling and eco- nomics is pushing towards renewables.™
South Africa now has 11.1GW under development, although 4.8GW at Kusile and 4.8GW at Medupi
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