Page 126 - RusRPTJun21

9.1.3 Aviation sector news
In April, Russian traffic was -23% to the 2019 level (vs. -27% a month ago), thanks to the strong, fully-recovered domestic market. This is a significant improvement since the end of 2020, when traffic was -42%.
In Turkey, traffic was hit by lockdowns, and was at -63% to April 2019 (vs. -54% in March). In Europe, it was down -72% (vs. -73%), and in the US it was down -41% (vs. -48%).
There is a recovery in Russia accelerating and have bullish expectations for the May numbers, which are to be supported by the extended holidays, while global traffic will be supported by Europe removing most of its lockdowns, in our view.
In Russia, total traffic was 7mn PAX, -23% to April 2019 (an improvement from the -27% in March). Domestic traffic was +13% (vs. +5% in March), and international was -75% (unchanged).
Aeroflot Group carried 3mn PAX, -35% to April 2019 (vs. -38%). The company’s CEO recently said that only 12% of the fleet would be idled in April vs. 25% in 1Q21.
In May, we expect the Group’s recovery to be supported by i) the extended May holidays and ii) a further decrease in the number of idled planes. Fuel prices in April were broadly unchanged m/m, at RUB43k/t, which is 3% below the pre-COVID level but up 20% YTD. We note that airlines managed this
126 RUSSIA Country Report June 2021 www.intellinews.com