Page 43 - RUSRptOct18

5.2.1 Import/export dynamics
March
May
June
Export Minerals
$205.20
$213.80
$219
Import Machinery
$77.70
$79.50
$80
Source: http://en.ru-stat.com/
Imports and exports both ticked up in June with export of minerals up by $2.7bn to $80bn and the import of machinery up more strongly to $80bn from $205bn in March.
Russia’s government plans to increase non-resource exports by 9.4% a year to bring them to $250bn by 2024 , according to the guidelines for the government’s activities till the year 2024, or up by 86.2% over seven years, or, the document says. The share of exports of processing and agricultural sector products and services is to go up to 20% of GDP by 2024. Thus, machine-building exports are to amount to $60bn, up by 77% in seven years, or by 8.6% a year, exports of the automotive sector are to reach $7.5bn, up by 74.4% on the 2017 figure of $4.3bn, exports of civil aircraft-building products are to amount to $4.42bn, up by more than nine times from 0.5bn US dollars.
The growth pace of Russian grain exports slowed due to tougher quality controls from the main buyers and the ruble’s strengthening, Reuters reported on September 25 citing industry analysts and traders. Russia collected a record-high harvest of 134mn tonnes in 2017 , which helped to keep food inflation low and brought in $20bn of grain export revenues. While previous estimates showed that Russia is on track to bring in yet another solid grain harvest of 116.9mn tonnes, this forecast is in danger due to the dry weather . Now Russian agricultural watchdog RosSelkhozNadzor has reportedly issued a directive to its regional branches to toughen quality controls for export grain shipments after receiving complaints from the main buyers in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Egypt. At the same time the strengthening of ruble also slows the exports, currently elevated to the six-week maximum against US dollar and euro. As a result the price of 12.5%-protein wheat increased by $5 to $220 per tonne in the past two weeks. The exports of grain in the current marketing year (started July 1) increased by 23% year-on-year, slowing down from 40% growth seen in the beginning of September.
Trade turnover between Russia and China increased by 25.7% year-on-year in January-August 2018 to $67.5bn , Tass reported on September 17 citing the data by China’s General Administration of Customs. In August alone, the trade turnover stood at $9.1bn. Exports from China to Russia went up by 13.5% to $31.2bn in the eight months of 2018, while imports of Russian goods to China jumped by 38.5% to $36.34bn. In 2016, the trade turnover between Russia and China grew by 2.2% y/y to $69.52bn, while jumping by 21% y/y $84bn. The two countries set a target to hit $100bn of trade turnover a few years ago, but that was stymied by the “silent crisis” years of 2014-2016 that hurt both their economies. However, if trade continues to expand at the same pace as over the first eight months of this year trade turnover should top $100bn by the end of this year. More recently president Vladimir Putin and China’s president Xi Jinping set a new target of $200bn by 2020 and at the current rate of expansion this looks entirely achievable. The
43 RUSSIA Country Report October 2018 www.intellinews.com