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AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec
Record fall predicted for global coal generation
New research forecasts falling global coal-fired generation in 2019, as declining output in the EU and US outpaces expansion in Asia, writes Richard Lockhart
GLOBAL
WHAT:
Anti-coal researchers forecast a 3% fall in coal generation in 2019
WHY:
US and EU output is being replaced by renewables, while demand is slowing in China
WHAT NEXT:
A more sustained and sharper decline is needed in future if the IPCC’s climate change goals are to be met
GLOBAL coal-fired power generation is forecast to fall by 3%, or 303 TWh, in 2019 because of declining generation growth in China, a sudden drop in coal power output in India and record declines in developed countries.
A briefing note from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, Sandbag and the Insti- tute for Energy Economics and Financial Analy- sis (IEEFA) found a wide range of reasons for the decline of coal as a generating fuel.
These included rising renewables output, expanded usage of gas and nuclear power and slowing or even negative growth in demand for electricity output.
However, the global decline hides rising coal consumption for power in Asian economies, with South-East Asia set to see a 10% rise in coal- fired power generation in 2019.
In South Africa, Africa’s major coal producer and consumer as a generating fuel, coal-fired output is set to fall slightly in 2019.
Tim Buckley, co-author of the briefing and director of energy finance studies at IEEFA, said growth in South-East Asian markets was unable to absorb the coming oversupply of thermal coal.
“At just 4.6% of the world’s total coal-fired power generation in 2019, the South-East Asian
region is not big enough to compensate for the dramatic cuts in thermal coal use in the US, the European Union and South Korea, and the ongoing slow decline in Japan,” said Buckley.
Country studies
In China, demand growth has slowed to 3% for 2019, down from 6.7% in 2017, with renewa- bles, hydro and nuclear meeting most of this new demand growth. The research found that in 2017, more coal was used to meet the higher demand.
Yet coal is still China’s dominant baseload fuel, and indeed the country is set to account for 48.1% of global coal-fired power in 2019.
The country is still opening a new large coal- fired power plant every two weeks, although the country’s utilisation rate is at a record low of 48%, compared with the global average of 54%.
In India, the researchers found that the decline in coal-fired generation accelerated sharply throughout 2019, reaching 19% year on year in October.
This is coal’s first fall in 30 years in India and is a major change in the country’s energy mix. Total 2019 coal-fired output is forecast to fall by 24 TWh.
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 47 28•November•2019