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AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec
This is welcome news for the Indian govern- ment, which aims in the long term to replace some coal with renewables, although New Delhi insists that it will be gradual and that coal will still play a dominant role in providing universal access to power.
In the EU coal-fired generation has posted a massive 19% decline for the year so far and could reach a forecast 23% for 2019 as whole, totalling 173 TWh, driven by new solar and wind instal- lations and a switch from coal to gas.
“The European Union has surprised all with a staggering 23% year-on-year decline in coal- fired power generation in the calendar year to September 2019,” said Buckley.
It has been the US that has been the main driver of declining coal generation in 2019, with output falling 13.9% in the year to August, rep- resenting 5.8% of the US coal fleet. Power plant retirements reached 14 GW by August and are set to easily surpass 2018’s 15.5 GW.
The crucial statistic is that of the forecast total of 303 TWh in global coal-generated power, the US is set to account for 173 TWh, or 57%.
Elsewhere, South Africa’s total power gen- eration contracted by 1.5% in January-August, reflecting Eskom’s generating and financial problems. Its coal power output is forecast to fall by 3 TWh in 2019.
Transition from coal
For global power generators, there are concerns about the profitability of coal-fired generation in the long term, with the largest economies all diversifying away from coal, despite the fuel retaining its central role in many countries.
With output declining, utilisation rates at coal-fired power plants are also set to hit an all- time low in 2019, affecting the profitability of both existing and planned capacity.
The world is still building new coal-fired capacity and utilisation rates are set to average 54% for 2019, down from 56% in 2018 and a high of 65% in 2007.
However, what is clear from the report is that new technology is challenging coal and often replacing it. “The transition away from coal is happening faster than forecasters can keep up with,” said Buckley.
2018 growth
This forecast contrasts with the growth in coal usage and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions seen in 2018. Emissions rose by 2% in 2018, the fastest growth seen since 2010, BP said in its 2018 Statistical Review, while China, India and the US were identified as the dominant drivers of a 2.9% rise in primary global energy consumption.
The power sector’s emissions grew by 2.7% in 2018, according to BP, their highest rate of growth for seven years, accounting for around half of the increase in global carbon emissions.
The last time coal-fired output dipped was in 2015, which the researchers attributed to a 1.8% decline in China’s coal-fired generation driven by a slowdown in construction and heavy industry.
From 2016 to 2018, global coal generation grew as Chinese heavy industry recovered, thereby pushing up GHG emissions.
The report concluded that a global slowdown in economic growth in 2019, together with more CO2 pricing, coal plant retirements and the wider adoption of non-fossil-fuel power sources all pointed to coal generation decreasing in 2019.
Climate change goals
Looking ahead, the researchers note that 2019’s 3% fall in coal power output could imply zero growth in global CO2 output, given that 2018’s 2.7% increase in CO2 emissions from coal-fired power generation was responsible for 50% of the global increase in emissions from fossil fuels in that year. Looking further ahead, reducing coal- fired generation could also play a central role in meeting global climate goals.
Meanwhile, the researchers compare their 3% forecast for 2019 to the IEA’s Sustainable Devel- opment Scenario, which calls for the power sec- tor to reduce generation by 6% per year from 2020 to 2040 in order to limit global tempera- ture growth to below 2 degrees. This means that the forecast decline in coal power output must be sustained and increased from 3% to 6% if the world is to reduce GHG emissions sufficiently to meet IPCC’s internationally agreed climate change goals Neverthless, the transistion away from coal is going faster than expected. 2019 is set to be the year when coal losese its dominant grip on the global power sector.™
Week 47 28•November•2019 w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m P5