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3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro Indicators
GDP Growth (y/y)
GDP (per capita, $)
GDP (current, TRYbn)
GDP (current prices, $bn)
CPI (%, eop)
Lira-loans (%, y/y, Jan 22)
Policy Rate (%)
Population (mn)
Employed (active, mn, Oct)
CA Balance ($bn, Nov)
CA Balance/GDP (%)
Budget (TRYbn, Oct)
Budget Balance/GDP (%)
USD/TRY (eop, Jan 28)
source: imf, tuik, treasury, central bank
2017 2018
Q1-19
-2.3 - 922
Q2 Q3
-1.6 1.0 - - 1,023 1,146
Q4 2019
6.0 0.9 - 9,127 1,190 4,280
206 754 11.8 11.8 13.9 13.9 11.4 11.4
- 83.2 26.7 26.7 -1.07 1.67
-0.5 0.2
-38 -124
-3.2 -2.9
Q1-20 Q2 Q3 Q4
4.5 -9.9 - - 1,071 1,042
2020 Q1-20
7.5 2.8 10,537 9,346
6.7 - - - - - - - 1,419 - - - 176 153 197 -- -
3,111 852 11.9 24.9 12.8 80.8 27.3 -46.6 -5.5 -48 -1.5 3.79
3,724 766 20.3 1.8 24.1 82.0 26.6 -28.3 -3.7 -73 -1.9 5.29
172 174 202 19.7 15.7 9.3 3.0 -0.5 4.0
25.5 23.9 16.3 -- - 27.0 26.9 26.9
11.9 12.6 11.8 14.6 14.6
19.1 39.4 46.4 44.1 44.1 41.5 9.3 7.6 11.1 17.0 17.0 17.0
--- - - - 22.5 23.0 25.7 25.8 - - -8.97 -12.6 -9.31 -4.40 - -
-1.88
-1.1
-36
-3.9
-1.29 5.92
-0.7 2.9
-42 -7
-4.1 -0.6
-5.1
-30
-2.8
-8.2 -4.7
-80 -31
-7.7 -2.2
- - - -32 -173 - - - -
5.56 5.79 5.65 5.95 5.95
6.61 6.85 7.72 7.44 7.44 7.35
Reuters reported on January 13 that the market was expecting a 5.5-6% y/y rise in Turkey’s official GDP in Q4.
Recently, Capital Economics hiked its forecast for Turkey’s official GDP to 1.3%. And @VeFinans forecasts 1.5%.
The IMF hiked its 2020 growth forecast for Turkey to 1.2% from a contraction of 5%.
The Erdogan administration does indeed enjoy a positive surprise in the growth figures; perhaps we could be in for even more than 1.5%.
The government has signalled since September that a positive GDP outcome for 2020 is in store, but something around or even more than 1.5% is a new
14 TURKEY Country Report February 2021 www.intellinews.com
